分析师对创新相关信息的关注能提高预测准确性吗?  

Can Analysts’Focus on Innovation-Related Information Improve the Accuracy of Forecasts?

作　　者：刘璐 洪剑峭[2] Liu Lu;Hong Jianqiao

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234 [2]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《证券市场导报》2023年第5期37-48,共12页Securities Market Herald

摘　　要：本文通过对2012―2020年分析师发布的研究报告进行文本分析,提取其中的创新相关信息含量,探究分析师的创新相关信息关注对于提高其盈利预测准确性的价值。研究发现,分析师研究报告中创新相关信息的含量与盈利预测准确性正相关,说明分析师对创新相关信息的关注有助于提高其盈利预测质量;特别是在公司创新活动强度较大、盈余质量较差、信息不对称程度较高的情况下,分析师对创新相关信息的关注和利用对于提高其盈利预测准确性的作用更强。本文丰富了关于分析师盈利预测和非财务信息价值的研究,为分析师的信息关注和利用提供了一定的启示。Through a text analysis of the research reports released by analysts from 2012 to 2020,this paper extracts the innovation-related information content,and explores the value of analysts’focus on innovation-related information in improving the accuracy of their earnings forecasts.The research finds that the level of innovation-related information in analysts’research reports is positively correlated with the accuracy of earnings forecasts,indicating that analysts’focus on innovation-related information helps to improve the quality of their earnings forecasts.The effect of analysts’focus on and utilization of innovation-related information in improving the accuracy of their earnings forecasts is stronger,especially under the circumstances of higher intensity of innovation activities,poorer earnings quality and higher degree of information asymmetry.This paper enriches the research on analysts’earnings forecasts and the value of non-financial information,and provides certain enlightenment for analysts’information focus and utilization.

关 键 词：分析师报告 公司创新 盈利预测 创新信息 文本分析 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]