基于Stella的防城港珍珠湾及其邻近海域渔业生态承载力分析  

Analysis of the Fishery Ecological Carrying Capacity in Pearl Bay and Its Adjacent Waters Based on Stella

作　　者：刘蔓婷 王良明 杨长平[1,2] 单斌斌 刘岩 王思涵[1] 孙典荣 LIU Man-ting;WANG Liang-ming;YANG Chang-ping(South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510300;Key Laboratory of Marine Ranch Technology,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510300)

机构地区：[1]中国水产科学研究院南海水产研究所,广东广州510300 [2]中国水产科学研究院海洋牧场技术重点实验室,广东广州510300

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2023年第8期58-62,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：防城港市珍珠湾海域渔业发展规划编制项目(FCZC2020-G1-10050-JGJD);中国水产科学研究院南海水产研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(2021TS05);农业农村部渔业渔政管理局政府购买服务项目(17200044)。

摘　　要：[目的]了解防城港珍珠湾及其邻近海域渔业生态承载力状况。[方法]基于生态足迹的算法,对该海域2015—2020年的生态足迹进行计算,研究其渔业生态现状,并基于Stella软件建立渔业生态足迹动态模型。[结果]2015-2020年珍珠湾及其邻近海域渔业生态足迹处于逐步下降趋势;其中渔业生态足迹包括海水养殖及海洋捕捞两部分,前者占比较小,低于10%,且两者属于同步下降趋势。防城港周边海域海洋捕捞总量在2015-2020年呈下降趋势,渔业生态承载力同样处于下降趋势,说明珍珠湾及其邻近海域的渔业资源状况处于超载状态,难以满足人均需求。对研究结果进行模拟分析显示,珍珠湾附近海域海洋捕捞产量的模拟值与实际值差异相对较小,偏离度D_(t)介于1.01%~3.11%,满足95%的置信度要求。[结论]生态赤字较为明显,建议进一步完善渔业资源承载力预警机制,为推进渔业资源保护及养护提供理论支持。[Objective]To understand the status of fishery ecological carrying capacity in Fangchenggang Pearl Bay and its adjacent waters.[Method]Based on the ecological footprint algorithm,the ecological footprint of the sea area from 2015 to 2020 was calculated,the status quo of its fishery ecology was studied,and the dynamic model of fishery ecological footprint was established based on Stella software.[Result]From 2015 to 2020,the fishery ecological footprint in the waters near Pearl Bay was on a gradual decline.The fishery ecological footprint included mariculture and marine fishing,and the former accounts for a relatively small proportion,less than 10%,and both belong to a synchronous decline trend.The total capture of marine fishing in the sea area around Fangchenggang had a decreasing trend during 2015-2020,and the fishery ecological carrying capacity was also in a decreasing trend,indicating that the carrying capacity of fishery resources in Pearl Bay cannot meet the demand of fishery resources per capita,and the condition of fishery resources was in overload.Simulation analysis of the study results showed that the differences between the simulated and actual values of marine fishing production in the sea area near Pearl Bay were relatively low,and the deviation(D_(t))ranged from 1.01%to 3.11%,which met the 95%confidence level requirement.[Conclusion]The ecological deficit is still relatively obvious,it is recommended to further improve the early warning mechanism of the fishery ecological carrying capacity,and provide theoretical support to promote the protection and conservation of fishery resources.

关 键 词：珍珠湾及其邻近海域 Stella软件 渔业生态足迹 渔业生态承载力 

分 类 号：F326.4[经济管理—产业经济]