当前巴基斯坦俾路支分离运动的演化路径及未来趋势  

The Evolutionary Path and Future Trend of the Current Baloch Separatist Movement in Pakistan

作　　者：于开明[1] 闫伟[1] Yu Kaiming;Yan Wei

机构地区：[1]西北大学中东研究所

出　　处：《南亚研究季刊》2023年第1期1-18,156,共19页South Asian Studies Quarterly

基　　金：国家社科基金重大研究专项(项目编号:21VGCQ015)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2021年以来,巴基斯坦俾路支分离运动在持续衰退多年后再度反弹,并在攻袭策略、活动空间和组织结构等方面呈现出不同以往的态势特征。这既是近年来俾路支分离运动分化演进的结果,也源于中南亚地缘政治变动带来的连锁反应。当前,俾路支分离运动的领导力量正处于迭代交替之中,分离运动的意识形态和行动方针也随之出现重大转向。部落势力在内斗和分裂中不断衰落,以中产阶级群体为核心的强硬派乘势崛起。长期聚拢分离运动的精神内核由部落主义的自治诉求转向分裂主义,暴力版图开始向省外扩张。特别是2021年出现阿富汗变局后,巴基斯坦内外政治环境发生了巨大变化,俾路支分裂势力趁机联合多股反巴力量,意图建立跨组织、跨民族、跨区域的反国家联盟。未来,俾路支分离运动存在着三方面潜在趋势:城市目标可能成为武装分子袭击的重点;教派主义或成为分离运动的隐性内核;俾路支分裂势力可能成为印美两国抑制巴基斯坦地缘政治影响、遏制中国的重要棋子。Since 2021,after years of continuous decline,the Baloch separatist movement in Pakistan has shown signs of rebound again,and has shown different trend characteristics in attack strategy,activity space and organizational structure.The emergence of such a situation is not only the result of the evolution of the baloch separatist movement in recent years,but also the cascading effect brought by the geopolitical changes in central and South Asia.At present,the leadership of the Baloch separatist movement is in the process of personnel replacement,and the ideology and course of action of the movement have also taken a significant turn.Tribal power is declining amid infighting and division,and hardliners,centered on the middle class,are rising.The spiritual core of the long gathering separatist forces turned from tribalism to separatism,and the territory of violence began to expand beyond the province.Especially after the political upheaval in Afghanistan in 2021,the political environment inside and outside Pakistan has changed greatly,and the Baloch separatist forces took the opportunity to unite with multiple anti-Pakistan forces with the intention of establishing a transorganizational,trans-ethnic and trans-regional anti-national united front.In the future,Baloch separatist movement has three potential trends.Urban targets could be the focus of militant attacks;Sectarianism may become the hidden core of the Baloch separatist movement;Baloch separatist forces are likely to become important pawns for both India and the US to contain Pakistan's geopolitical influence and contain China.

关 键 词：巴基斯坦 俾路支分离运动 恐怖主义 阿富汗 印度 

分 类 号：D735.31[政治法律—政治学]