2011—2022年甘孜州麻疹流行病学特征分析  

Epidemiological characteristics of measles in Ganzi Prefecture from 2011 to 2022

作　　者：徐理飞 马学风 倪萍 段勇军 栾荣生[1] XU Lifei;MA Xuefeng;NI Ping;DUAN Yongjun;LUAN Rongsheng(West China School of Public Health,Sichuan University/The Fourth Hospital of West China,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China;Ganzi Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Kangding 626000,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西公共卫生学院/四川大学华西第四医院,成都610041 [2]甘孜藏族自治州疾病预防控制中心,四川康定626000

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2023年第4期408-413,共6页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

摘　　要：目的对甘孜州2011—2022年麻疹流行病学进行分析,对发病高峰年2015—2017年麻疹的空间分布规律进行研究。方法通过中国麻疹监测信息报告管理系统收集甘孜州2011—2022年麻疹发病数据,采用空间自相关分析探究麻疹发病的聚集区和热点地区,以P<0.05为差异具有统计学意义。结果甘孜州18个县2011—2022年共报告麻疹1721例,1例死亡病例,年均发病率为14.85/10万,2016年发病率最高,达48.24/10万,2020—2022年发病率均为0。男性956例(56%)、女性765例(44%),0~14岁年龄段儿童共1223例(72%);1487例病例中,有麻疹接种史的病例为36例,占9.1%,无麻疹接种史635例(42.7%),716例接种史不详(48.2%)。高发病年份2015—2017年空间自相关分析显示,全局Moran指数分别为0.2670、0.3038和0.3586,2015年至2017年甘孜州县级麻疹疫情均呈正空间自相关,全局G系数分别为0.2091、0.2091和0.2091,2015年和2016年空间分布模式为“高-高”聚集,2017年空间分布模式统计学意义不显著。局部空间自相关分析识别出1个疫情核心区和5个热点县区,主要分布在甘孜州中北部的石渠县、德格县、甘孜县、新龙县、白玉县,2015—2017年麻疹发病率空间分布显示西南部的理塘县和雅江县也是高发病率地区。结论2015—2017年甘孜州整体麻疹发病率高,各县发病率差异较大,空间分布上呈现明显的不均衡性,发病率高的县主要聚集在甘孜州中北部和西南部地区。Objective To analyze the epidemiology of measles in Ganzi Prefecture from 2011-2022,and to study the spatial distribution pattern of measles in the peak incidence years from 2015 to 2017.Methods Measles incidence data in Ganzi Prefecture from 2011 to 2022 were collected through the Chinese Measles Surveillance Information Reporting Management System,and spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to explore the clustering areas and hotspots of measles incidence.408P<0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. Results A total of 1 721 measles cases andone death were reported in 18 counties of Ganzi Prefecture from 2011 to 2020, with an averageannual incidence rate of 14.85/105. The highest incidence rate was 48.24/105 in 2016,and the ratewas 0 from 2020 to 2022. There were 956 males (56%) and 765 females (44%) . A total of 1 223(72%) children aged 0-14 years old. Among the 1 487 cases,36 cases (9.1%) had a history ofmeasles vaccination, 635 cases (42.7%) had no history of measles vaccination, and 716 cases(42.8%) had unknown vaccination history. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of the high incidenceyears from 2015 to 2017 showed that the global Moran index was 0.267 0,0.303 8 and 0.358 6,respectively. The county- level measles epidemics in Ganzi Prefecture were positively spatiallyautocorrelated from 2015 to 2017, with global G- coefficients of 0.209 1, 0.209 1 and 0.209 1,respectively. The spatial distribution pattern was“high- high”clustering in 2015 and 2016,and thespatial distribution pattern was not statistically significant in 2017. Local spatial autocorrelationanalysis identified one epidemic core area and five hotspot counties, namely Shiqu County, DegeCounty, Ganzi County, Xinlong County and Baiyu County in north- central Ganzi Prefecture. Thespatial distribution of measles incidence from 2015 to 2017 showed that Litang County and YajiangCounty in the southwest of Ganzi Prefecture were also areas with high incidence. Conclusions Theoverall incidence of measles in Ganzi Prefecture from 2015 to 2

关 键 词：麻疹 发病率 空间分析 

分 类 号：R511.1[医药卫生—内科学]