近20年男子110米栏比赛成绩线性拟合分析及预测研究  

Linear Fitting Analysis of the Results of Men’s 110-meter Hurdles in the Past 20 years

作　　者：王涵涵 Wang Hanhan(Shongdong Normal University,Jinan 250358,China)

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学,山东济南250358

出　　处：《体育科技文献通报》2023年第4期46-49,共4页Bulletin of Sport Science & Technology

摘　　要：以我国、世界男子110米栏最好成绩演变、近20年我国和世界男子前十名运动员平均成绩及男子110米栏在世锦赛、奥运会及全运会的成绩作切入点,通过文献资料、线性拟合分析和数理统计等研究方法,分析男子110米栏发展历程,揭示男子110米栏运动的发展规律,预测男子110米栏成绩。研究结果:我国男子110米栏在2002-2012年间的整体水平与世界男子110米栏成绩相近,但近十年成绩有所下降;世界男子110米栏成绩呈现上升的趋势。通过对国内和国外男子110米栏最好成绩的线性拟合分析,预计我国男子110米栏成绩还将处于下降趋势,预测2023年最好成绩为13.2889s、2024年最好成绩为13.3072s;预测国外2023年和2024年的最好成绩分别为12.9122s和12.9104s,呈现上升趋势。Taking the development of the best performance of the men’s 110m hurdles in China and the world,the average performance of the top ten men’s 110m hurdles in China and the world in the past 20 years,and the results of the men’s 110m hurdles in the world championships,Olympic Games and National Games as the entry research point,the paper analyzes the development process of the men’s 110m hurdles,reveals the development law of the men’s 110m hurdles,and predicts the results of the men’s 110m hurdles through the methods of literature review,linear fitting analysis and mathematical statistics.The results show that the overall level of Chinese men’s 110-meter hurdles team in 2002-2012 is similar to that of the world’s men’s 110-meter hurdles,but the results have declined in the past decade;the world’s men’s 110-meter hurdles show an upward trend.Through the linear fitting analysis of the best results of the men’s 110m hurdles at home and abroad,it is shown that the results of the men’s 110m hurdles in China will still be in a downward trend,with the predicted best results of 13.2889s in 2023 and 13.3072s in 2024;The best predicted results in 2023 and 2024 abroad are 12.9122s and 12.9104s respectively,showing an upward trend.

关 键 词：男子110米栏 成绩分析 灰色预测 

分 类 号：G822.6[文化科学—体育训练]