基于集对分析的乡村公路建设及土地整治项目投资决策风险评价  

Risk Evaluation of Investment Decisions for Rural Road Construction and Land Remediation Projects Based on Set-Pair Analysis

作　　者：王松江[1] 陈洁仙 WANG Songjiang;CHEN Jiexian(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2023年第2期73-78,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家社科基金应急管理体系建设研究专项项目(20VYJ028)。

摘　　要：为预估项目潜在风险的大小级别和发展态势,提高乡村公路建设及土地整治项目投资决策的精度,通过文献检索构建风险指标体系,筛选出10个一级指标和31个二级指标;由专家打分得出区间权重,采用三元联系数法得出精确的指标权重;基于集对分析法构建同异反风险评价模型,利用五元联系数法对风险态势进行深度分析。并以云南省某县乡村振兴战略工程及土地整治建设项目为例进行实证研究,证明该模型具有较好的准确性与可操作性。This research aims at estimiting the project risks and improving the precision of investment decisions for rural road construction and land remediation projects.In this research,a risk index system was constructed through a literature search.Ten primary indicators and 31 secondary indicators were screened out.The interval weights were scored by experts,and the ternary coefficient method was used to process them to obtain accurate index weights.The homogeneous inverse risk evaluation model was constructed based on the set-pair analysis method,and the risk dynamics was analyzed by the five-element coefficient method in depth.Moreover,an empirical research was carried out by taking the rural revitalization strategy project and land consolidation construction project of a county in Yunnan Province as an example.The results prove that the developed model has good accuracy andoperability.

关 键 词：土地整治 乡村公路 集对分析法 风险评价 

分 类 号：F542[经济管理—产业经济]