重大工程项目治理机制的动态仿真研究  

Dynamic Simulation of Governance Mechanism of Megaproject Based on DBN

作　　者：罗岚[1] 周威 薄秋实[1] 杨晨曦 LUO Lan;ZHOU Wei;BO Qiushi;YANG Chenxi(School of Public Policy and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;School of Infrastructure Engineering,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学公共政策与管理学院,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学工程建设学院,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2023年第2期91-96,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71901113);国家自然科学基金地区基金项目(72061025、71962019);江西省自然科学基金项目(20212ACB214014)。

摘　　要：结合中国重大工程项目复杂情境,深度剖析重大工程项目治理机制包括合同、关系和行政治理等因素之间的关系,构建并验证复杂情境下重大工程治理机制的动态仿真模型。进行预测和诊断分析,得到重大工程项目治理的影响机制,并提出提升项目治理能力的策略建议。结果表明:在重大工程项目治理过程中应尤其注重权责利明确性、信息的充足性、项目各方寻求解决方法和协调征地拆迁和移民安置等方面的管控。通过实证分析,进一步证明所建立模型的可行性,可以为重大工程项目各参与方改善治理能力提供参考依据。Combined with the complex situation of megaprojects in China,this paper deeply analyzes the relationship between the governance mechanism of megaprojects,including contract,relationship,and administrative governance factors.The dynamic simulation model of megaprojects governance mechanism under the complex situation is built and verified.Then,the prediction and diagnostic analysis are carried out to obtain the influence mechanism of megaprojects governance,and the strategic suggestions are put forward to improve the project governance ability.The results show that in the governance process of megaprojects,special attention should be paid to the clarity of rights,responsibilities,and interests,sufficient information,project parties to seek solutions,and coordination of land expropriation,relocation,and resettlement.Finally,an empirical analysis is carried out to further prove the feasibility of the established model.The research results can provide a reference for the participants of megaprojects to improve their governance capabilities.

关 键 词：重大工程项目 项目治理机制 动态贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]