预测空气质量的新型灰色系统多变量模型构建——以石家庄市为例  

Construction of a New Grey System Multivariable Model for Predicting Air Quality--Take Shijiazhuang City for Instance

作　　者：史凯赫 丁日佳[2] 吴利丰 郑一凡 SHI Kai-he;DING Ri-jia;WU Li-feng;ZHENG Yi-fan(School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China;School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Beijing 100083,China;School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;China Coal Power Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100010,China)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京100083 [3]河北工程大学管理工程与商学院,河北邯郸056038 [4]中煤电力有限公司,北京100010

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2023年第2期75-81,共7页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71871084)。

摘　　要：针对空气质量预测问题,本文采用灰色关联分析法对石家庄市社会经济因素对空气质量的影响进行排序,筛选出人口密度、第二产业增加值以及常住人口城市化率为影响空气质量综合指数变化的相关因素。采用Hausdorff累加的方式构建了新型灰色系统预测多变量模型FHGM(1,N),并且使用该模型探讨社会经济因素对石家庄市空气质量的影响。结果表明,首先FHGM(1,N)适用于预测石家庄市空气质量问题,并且可用于其他城市空气质量问题的研究;其次,石家庄市人口密度以及第二产业增加值的发展速率超出一定范围后会对空气质量改善产生负面影响,常住人口城镇化率与空气质量综合指数呈负相关。A new model of partial accumulation grey system forecasting multivariate model FHGM(1,N)is constructed,which is aimed at the research of air quality forecasting.In addition,the model is used to explore the influence of socio-economic factors on Shijiazhuang's air quality.In the application part,the grey relational analysis method is used to rank the impact of economic and social factors on air quality in Shijiazhuang,and screens out population density,and secondary industry added value,as well as the urbanization rate of the permanent population is the relevant factor that affects the change of the comprehensive air quality composite index.Then the model is built.The results show that,firstly,the model is suitable for predicting air quality problems in Shijiazhuang.Secondly,if the growth rate of the population density of Shijiazhuang and its added value of secondary industry exceed a certain range,it will have a negative impact on the improvement of air quality.Moreover,the urbanization rate of the permanent population is negatively correlated with the air quality composite index.

关 键 词：灰色系统 空气质量综合指数 第二产业 人口密度 城市化 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]