上海城市碳中和与氢能应用场景研究  

Research on Urban Carbon Neutrality and Hydrogen Energy Application Scenarios in Shanghai

作　　者：黄宣旭 沈威 丁光宏[2] HUANG Xuanxu;SHEN Wei;DING Guanghong(Yingde Gas(Shanghai)Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200135,China;Department of Mechanics and Applied Engineering,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]盈德气体上海有限公司,上海200137 [2]复旦大学力学与工程科学系,上海200433

出　　处：《南方能源建设》2023年第3期11-22,共12页Southern Energy Construction

基　　金：上海市2021年度软科学研究计划定向委托项目“上海氢能技术产业应用场景战略研究”(21692113300)。

摘　　要：[目的]我国的“双碳”战略为氢能的发展确定了方向。文章以上海为例,研究区域中心城市在碳中和目标下,通过能源替代实现城市减排进程及能源消费结构预测。绿色氢能与天然气、电力等低碳能源存在相互补充的关系,测算氢能的规模对城市氢能规划有着重要的意义,并以此对氢能发展提出前瞻性的预测和顶层设计建议。[方法]通过建立城市碳中和预测模型,对城市碳排放总量模拟分析,基于碳排放现状预测至2060年碳排放总量。根据能源替代减排公式,碳减排约束条件下的能源消费模型,预测氢能、电力、天然气等能源需求。通过氢能应用场景和供应来源调研,分析城市氢能的需求结构与供应构成。[结果]研究表明:上海预计2028年碳达峰,直接排放量峰值为2.09亿t,而后进入总量减排进程;2040年减排量达到峰值直至2060年实现碳中和。绿色氢能作为零碳能源,2030年逐步进入能源消费结构,2040年氢能需求总量约为300万t,约占总能源消费的11%;到2060年氢能需求总量约为835万t,达到总能源消费的21%。[结论]可由此构建合理的氢能供应与消费结构,建设氢能高速公路,通过氢能战略顶层设计,建设完善的安全结构、金融结构、生产结构、知识结构,掌握氢能定价权的区域氢能中心。[Introduction]China's"carbon peak and neutrality"strategy has determined the direction for the development of hydrogen energy.This paper takes Shanghai as an example to study the process of urban emission reduction through energy substitution and the prediction of energy consumption structure in regional central cities under the goal of carbon neutrality.Green hydrogen energy and lowcarbon energy sources(such as natural gas and electricity)are complementary to each other.Measuring the scale of hydrogen energy is of great significance to urban hydrogen energy planning,and thus forward-looking prediction and top-level design suggestions are put forward for hydrogen energy development.[Method]By establishing a prediction model of urban carbon neutrality,the total urban carbon emissions were simulated and analyzed,and the total carbon emissions by 2060 were predicted based on the current carbon emissions.According to the energy substitution emission reduction formula and the energy consumption model under the carbon emission reduction constraints,the demand for hydrogen energy,electricity,natural gas and other key energy sources was predicted.Through the investigation of hydrogen energy application scenarios and supply sources,the demand structure and supply composition of urban hydrogen energy were analyzed.[Result]The study shows that Shanghai is expected to peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2028,with direct emissions peaking at 209 million tons,and then enter the process of total emission reduction.The emission reduction will peak by 2040,and carbon neutrality will be achieved by 2060.Green hydrogen energy,as a zero-carbon energy,will gradually enter the energy consumption structure by 2030.In 2040,the total demand for hydrogen energy will be about 3 million tons,accounting for about 11%of the total energy consumption.By 2060,the total demand for hydrogen energy will be about 8.35 million tons,reaching 21%of the total energy consumption.[Conclusion]Therefore,a reasonable hydrogen energy supply and consumption s

关 键 词：碳减排 氢能 战略 氢管网 顶层设计 氢能应用场景 

分 类 号：TK91[动力工程及工程热物理] F426[经济管理—产业经济]