基于FRAM-MC的船员疲劳事故研究  

The Study of Crew Fatigue Accidents Based on FRAM-MC

作　　者：潘恒毅 PAN Hengyi(College of Transport and Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306

出　　处：《江西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期206-215,共10页Journal of Jiangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52271363)资助项目。

摘　　要：针对船员疲劳事故,利用功能共振分析(FRAM)与蒙特卡罗仿真(MC)相结合的方法,构建了船员疲劳事故致因分析模型(FRAM-MC).以“深能1”轮搁浅事故为案例,通过梳理事件经过和FRAM-MC模型计算并实证分析,结果表明:基于FRAM-MC的船员疲劳事故分析方法可建立清晰事故层次结构,有助于理清事故致因,其功能可变性和耦合分析能够准确高效地找出事故发生的关键功能和关键路径,为功能屏障设置提供依据,从而制定针对性防控措施,有效提高海事运输系统安全性,其研究结果可为海事事故分析提供参考和科学依据.Focusing on the crew fatigue accidents,a causal analysis model of crew fatigue accidents(FRAM-MC)is constructed by combining functional resonance analysis(FRAM)with Monte Carlo simulation(MC).Taking“SHENNENG 1”ship grounding accident as a case,by combing the event process and the FRAM-MC model calculation and empirical analysis,the results show that the FRAM-MC based crew fatigue accident analysis method can establish a clear accident hierarchy and help clarify the causes of accidents.Its function variability and coupling analysis can accurately and efficiently find out the key functions and critical paths of accidents,providing a basis for the setting of functional barriers,so as to formulate targeted prevention and control measures and effectively improve the safety of maritime transport system.The research results can provide reference and scientific basis for maritme accident analysis.

关 键 词：船员疲劳 功能共振分析 蒙特卡罗仿真 航运事故 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]