2012—2021年海南岛极端短时强降水特征及其成因分析  

Characteristics and causes of short-duration extreme rainfall in Hainan Island from 2012 to 2021

作　　者：石娟[1,2] 蒋贤玲 柯元惠[1,2] 郑艳 SHI Juan;JIANG Xian-ling;KE Yuan-hui;ZHENG Yan(Hainan Meteorological Observatory,Haikou 570203,China;Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省气象台,海南海口570203 [2]海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2023年第2期62-70,共9页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金项目“海南岛强对流的统计研究和基于多模式资料融合的强对流预报模型”(423QN318);海南省重点研发项目“基于雷达观测的海南省水文地质灾害风险预警技术研发及应用”(ZDYF2023SHFZ125);海南省重点研发计划科技合作方向项目“基于数据融合的南海台风降水预报技术研究”(ZDYF2019213)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用2012—2021年海南岛323个地面气象观测站逐小时降水资料及ERA5高分辨率资料,统计分析了海南岛近10 a的极端短时强降水时空分布特征,利用合成分析法探讨了产生极端短时强降水的环流背景。结果表明:海南岛极端短时强降水每年约为422.3次,占短时强降水的8%。极端短时强降水的季节和日变化明显,多发生在4—10月的午后(14:00—19:00),8月站次最多,近10 a发生极端短时强降水的站次最多为11次,出现在海南岛西北部。极端短时强降水日变化呈单峰型,峰值出现在17:00,为每年62.1次。午后发生极端短时强降水的平均降水强度较大,均值为67.8 mm·h^(-1),峰值为111.5 mm·h^(-1)。海南岛极端短时强降水年、暖季(4—9月)的空间分布有两个高发地区,为海南岛西北部和东部沿海地区,暖季的天气系统是影响海南岛极端短时强降水的主要天气系统。海南岛极端短时强降水逐月空间分布差异与海陆风、地形均有密切关系,各月触发条件不同,7—8月极端短时强降水相对较多。Based on the hourly precipitation data and ERA5 high-resolution data from 323 surface meteorological stations in Hainan Island from 2012 to 2021,the temporal and spatial variations of regional short-duration extreme rainfall(SDER)in recent 10 years were analyzed statistically and the circulation background of SDER was discussed using the synthetic analysis method as well.The results show that there are about 422.3 times of SDER in Hainan Island per year,accounting for 8% of SDER.The seasonal and diurnal variations of SDER were significant,most of which occurred in the afternoon of April to October(14:00-19:00),and the SDER most occurred in August.In recent 10 years,there are at most 11 times of SDER at a station located in the northwest of Hainan Island.The diurnal variation of SDER appears unimodal and the peak appears at 17:00 with a frequency of 62.1 times per year.The mean intensity of SDER in the afternoon was higher,with an average of 67.8 mm·h^(-1) and a peak value of 111.5 mm·h^(-1).The spatial variation of SDER in the whole year and warm season appears in two high-incidence regions including the northwestern and eastern coastal areas of Hainan Island.The weather system in the warm season dominantly affects the SDER in Hainan Island.The monthly spatial variation differences of SDER in Hainan Island are closely related to land and sea breeze and topography.The triggering conditions are various for each month,and there is relatively more SDER from July to August.

关 键 词：极端短时强降水 环流背景 海陆风 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]