我国农业干旱灾害风险评估及分布特征分析  

An analysis of distribution characteristics of agricultural drought disaster risks in China

作　　者：屈艳萍[1,2] 陈茜茜 高辉[1,2] 吕娟[1,2] 苏志诚[1,2] Qu Yanping;Chen Xixi;Gao Hui;Lyu Juan;Su Zhicheng

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院防洪抗旱减灾中心,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《中国水利》2023年第8期23-27,共5页China Water Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2021YFC3000203);水利部水旱灾害防御战略创新团队项目(WH0145B042021);国家自然科学基金项目(42001039)。

摘　　要：基于水资源量分析干旱灾害危险性空间分布情况,通过分析不同干旱频率下现状年供水与历史典型年供水能力的差异,计算不同干旱频率下的农业干旱灾害影响,揭示全国农业干旱灾害风险分布特征。结果表明,我国干旱灾害危险性较高的地区大多分布在粮食主产区;在5年一遇、10年一遇、20年一遇的情况下,农业干旱灾害高风险区主要分布在黄淮海地区、东北地区、西北地区等北方地区;在50年一遇和100年一遇的情况下,西南地区和长江中下游地区等水资源相对丰沛的地区农业干旱灾害风险剧增,区域粮食安全、供水安全甚至生态安全将面临严峻挑战。Based on an analysis of water resources availability and the spatial distribution of drought disaster risks,this study estimates the impacts of drought disasters under different frequencies by calculating the differences between current annual water supply capacity and historical typical annual capacity.The aim is to reveal the distribution characteristics of agricultural drought disaster risks in China.The results show that the areas with a high risk of drought disasters are mainly distributed in grain-producing areas.In the case of a 5-year,10-year,and 20-year return period,the regions with high risk are mainly distributed in northern regions,such as the Huanghuaihai Plain,Northeast China,and Northwest China.In the case of a 50-year and 100-year return period,the risk of drought in the areas with relatively abundant water resources,such as the Southwest region and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,increases sharply.These regions will face great challenges in food security,water supply security,and even ecological security.

关 键 词：干旱频率 农业干旱灾害 干旱风险评估与管理 风险普查 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] S42[农业科学—植物保护]