橡胶坝不同运行高度对洪水风险的影响分析  

Impact Analysis of Rubber Dam on Flood Risk

作　　者：陈玉辉 CHEN Yuhui(Urban Construction Management Office of Linghe Area in Lingyuan City,Lingyuan 122500,China)

机构地区：[1]凌源市凌河城区建设管理办公室,辽宁凌源122500

出　　处：《西北水电》2023年第2期6-11,共6页Northwest Hydropower

摘　　要：通过建立辽宁省内两条河流的风险分析模型,分析了橡胶坝运行高度对水系连通伴生洪水风险的影响,并根据分析结果提出了相应的防控建议。结果表明:洪水重现期为100、50年一遇时,橡胶坝坝址处表现出水位流速风险概率P均较低(小于0.3),风险概率P较高(超过0.8)的规律;在两河水系遇到等级较大的洪水时,没有提前下泄橡胶坝蓄水量会导致河道中的水位风险大大增加,而下泄蓄水量又会造成人为洪峰叠加的现象,亦会产生较大的风险;建议A、B河橡胶坝在汛期来之前均降至坝高的50%以下;但在面临100年一遇洪水重现期的时候,建议提前把橡胶坝高度降至设计坝高25%以下。Through the establishment of risk analysis models for two rivers in Liaoning Province,the impact of operation height of rubber dam on flood risk associated with water system connection is analyzed,and corresponding prevention and control suggestions are put forward.The results show that when the flood return period is 100 years and 50 years,the risk probability P of water level and velocity at the rubber dam site is low(less than 0.3)and high(more than 0.8);When the two river systems encounter floods of relatively high grade,failure to discharge the water storage capacity of the rubber dam in advance will greatly increase the water level risk in the river channel,and the discharged water storage capacity will cause the phenomenon of superimposition of artificial flood peaks,which will also generate greater risks;It is suggested that the height of rubber dams on rivers A and B should be reduced to less than 50%of the dam height before the flood season;However,it is suggested to reduce the height of the rubber dam to less than 25%of the design dam height in advance when facing the flood with return period of 100 years.

关 键 词：橡胶坝 洪水风险 洪水重现期 流速风险概率 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]