美国利率周期性调整的溢出效应及对策  

The Spillover Effect of Periodic Policy Interest Rate Adjustment of the Federal Reserve and the Corresponding Countermeasures

作　　者：王正国 李响 许树正 WANG Zhengguo;LI Xiang;XU Shuzheng(FICC Department,CITIC Securities)

机构地区：[1]中信证券固定收益部研究服务部

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2023年第4期19-32,共14页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：近段时间以来,美联储为应对严峻的通胀压力而快速大幅收紧货币政策。美联储政策利率调整可能不仅会对美国国内造成影响,依托于全球商品价格以及跨国流动的资本等多种中介因素,也对他国资产价格乃至宏观经济同样会产生一定的溢出效应。美联储加息可能使他国经受本币汇率贬值、债券收益率走升、股票价格下跌、贸易顺差减小和通货膨胀率降低等多种影响,而其降息则可能产生相反的影响。为了应对美联储利率周期性调整的溢出效应,中国应通过加快构建双循环发展新格局来降低对外需的依赖程度,并保持宏观政策的独立性,避免受到他国政策的干扰。同时也应进一步提升人民币国际化水平,缩小人民币与美元的地位差距。Recently,the Federal Reserve has rapidly and significantly tightened monetary policy in response to severe inflationary pressures.The adjustment of the Fed's policy interest rate may not only have an impact on the domestic economy of the United States,but also have a certain spillover effect on other countries'asset prices and even the macroeconomic through various intermediary factors such as global commodity prices and cross-border capital flows.When Fed increase policy interest rate,other countries may suffer from multiple impacts,such as devaluation of their currency,rising bond yields,falling stock prices,shrinking trade surpluses,and lower inflation rates,while the cut of policy interest rate may have the opposite impact.In order to cope with the spillover effect as mentioned above,China should reduce its dependence on external demand by accelerating the construction of a new"dual circulation"development pattern and maintain the independence of macro policies to avoid interference from policies of other countries.At the same time,it is also necessary to further enhance the internationalization level of RMB so as to narrow the gap between RMB and U.S.dollar.

关 键 词：美联储 利率调整 溢出效应 资产价格 宏观经济 

分 类 号：F827.12[经济管理—财政学]