基于ECMWF和华东区域中尺度模式的暴雨预报特征研究  

Study on characteristics of rainstorm prediction by ECMWF and CMA-SH9

作　　者：曲巧娜 盛春岩[1,2] 范苏丹 荣艳敏[1,2] 夏凡 QU Qiaona;SHENG Chunyan;FAN Sudan;RONG Yanmin;XIA Fan(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong,Jinan 250031,China;Shandong Meteorological Institute,Jinan 250031,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,济南250031 [2]山东省气象科学研究所,济南250031

出　　处：《气象科学》2023年第2期196-206,共11页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2020MD055);山东省气象局面上项目(2020sdqxm07)。

摘　　要：为探讨ECMWF、华东区域中尺度模式(简称为CMA-SH9模式)多个时效对夏季(2019年6—8月)暴雨预报特征,采用目标对象检验方法对不同类型影响系统下模式预报的强降水落区面积、位置、形状等进行评价,并对预报难度较大的受西风槽和西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)边缘切变线影响的高空要素场及环流形势场进行了研究。结果表明:ECMWF和CMA-SH9模式对夏季暴雨预报偏小3个量级次数最多,CMA-SH9模式各时效对暴雨及以上降水预报的准确率大多高于ECMWF;ECMWF和CMA-SH9模式对热带气旋与中纬度系统相互作用的暴雨预报最好,其次是冷涡影响,预报较差的是受西风槽及副高边缘切变线影响的暴雨过程;西风槽及副高边缘切变线影响时ECMWF的位势高度场预报略好于CMA-SH9模式,温度的预报500 hPa以上CMA-SH9模式略好于ECMWF,500 hPa以下二者相差不大,相对湿度的预报CMA-SH9模式误差小于ECMWF,且CMA-SH9模式850 hPa的36 h和60 h时效预报误差最小;受西风槽及副高边缘切变线影响的一次暴雨过程中,相对湿度90%及以上落区的预报ECMWF与实况10 mm·h^(-1)降水落区几乎无交集,CMA-SH9模式的预报包含了10 mm降水落区。In order to investigate the characteristic of ECMWF and CMA-SH9 models on multiple time-effect forecasts of rainstorm in summer(June to August in 2019),the object-based verification method is used to evaluate the area,location and shape of different types of heavy precipitation falling area predicted by of models about different influence systems,and the unpredictable high altitude factors and circulation influenced by westerly trough and shear line at the edge of subtropical high are also discussed in this study.The results show that,the times of forecast in rainstorm are mostly three orders of magnitude smaller.The prediction accuracy of rainstorm with multiple periods of validity about CMA-SH9 model is higher than that of the ECMWF model.The models of ECMWF and CMA-SH9 are better working in forecasting of the tropical cyclone with mid-low latitude circulation than in prediction of cold vortex,and the models of ECMWF and CMA-SH9 are worse working in forecasting of the shear line at the edge of subtropical high.When the westerly trough and shear line the edge of subtropical high edge affected,the prediction of geopotential height by ECMWF model is better than CMA-SH9.The prediction of temperature by CMA-SH9 is slightly better than ECMWF above 500 hPa,and there is little difference below 500 hPa.The forecast error of relative humidity prediction by CMA-SH9 is smaller than that of ECMWF,and the errors of 36 h and 60 h period of validity by CMA-SH9 are the smallest.In the‘20190807’process affected by the westerly trough and the shear line at the edge of subtropical high,the area of relative humidity above 90%predicted by ECMWF has no intersection with areas of 10 mm·h^(-1) precipitation from observational data,while the area of relative humidity above 90%predicted by CMA-SH9 covers the area of 10 mm precipitation.

关 键 词：目标对象 数值模式 暴雨预报 高空要素检验 相对湿度90%及以上 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]