基于概率统计方法的中国农作物生产风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Crop Yield Suffering the Agrometeorological Disaster in China Based on the Probability Method

作　　者：王静[1,2,3] 方锋[4] 王素萍 李臻琦[1] Wang Jing;Fang Feng;Wang Suping;Li Zhenqi(Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020,China;Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020,China;Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020,China;Lanzhou Regional Climate Center,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,兰州730020 [3]中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020 [4]兰州区域气候中心,兰州730020

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2023年第2期9-18,共10页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金项目(20JR10RA454、21JRTRA698);甘肃省气象局重点项目(ZD2023-01);兰州干旱气象研究所创新团队建设项目(GHSCXTD-2020-3);中国气象局西部优秀气象人才项目(QXYXRC2022-02-0125(5))。

摘　　要：利用概率统计方法,基于主要农作物历年单产数据,通过估算中国不同区域不同农作物相对气象产量的概率密度曲线和分布函数,获得了各区域主要作物不同增减产区间的概率和风险水平。结果表明:东北、华北和西北地区粮食相对气象产量波动较大;华北地区水稻,华南地区小麦,东北、华北和华南地区玉米,东北、华北、华中、西北地区马铃薯,东北地区油料作物相对气象产量波动幅度较大。水稻遭受气象灾害后相对气象产量波动较小,平均为3.1%,抗风险能力较强,而小麦和油料作物的相对气象产量波动较大,分别为5.9%和6.1%。东北地区粮食减产区间在5%~10%和超过10%的概率最大,其次为西北地区在这两个减产区间出现的概率,华东地区的粮食生产比较稳定,风险较低,防灾减灾能力较强。华北地区的水稻在减产5%~10%和超过10%的概率较大,东北地区的水稻在减产5%~10%和超过10%的概率最小;七个区域小麦减产超过10%的概率均较大,尤其是华北和华南地区,概率均超过了4%,华中地区的小麦在减产5%~10%和超过10%的概率最小;东北和华南地区的玉米减产超过10%的概率较大;东北、华北、华中和西北地区的马铃薯严重减产的概率较大,华东和华南地区马铃薯严重减产的概率相对较小;东北地区的油料减产超过10%的概率较大,而华南地区油料严重减产的概率较小,风险较低。By using a probability statistical method and based on the annual yield data of major crops,the probability density curve and distribution function of the relative meteorological yield of different crops in different regions of China are estimated,and the probability and risk levels in different regions are obtained.The results show that the relative meteorological yield of grain crops fluctuates greatly in Northeast China,North China and Northwest China.Especially,the rice in North China,the wheat in South China,the maize in Northeast China,North China and South China,the potato in Northeast China,North China,Central China,and Northwest China,and the oil crops in Northeast China have a large fluctuation range relative to meteorological yield.After suffering from meteorological disasters,the relative meteorological yield of rice fluctuates less,averaged at 3.1%,so its ability to resist risks is stronger.However,the relative meteorological yields of wheat and oil crops fluctuate more obviously,with the extents of 5.9%and 6.1%,respectively.Northeast China has the greatest probability of reducing grain yield,reduced by 5%10%and even by more than 10%,followed by the Northwest China.In East China,grain crop production is relatively stable,with a lower risk level and stronger ability of disaster prevention and mitigation.In North China,the probability of rice losing 5%10%and more than 10%is higher,while that of Northeast China is the smallest.All of the seven regions have a higher probability of reducing wheat production by more than 10%,especially in North China and South China,the probability values all surpass 4%.Central China has the lowest probability of reducing wheat production by 5%10%and more than 10%.For maize,the yield reducing probability by more than 10%in Northeast China and South China is higher.Moreover,the probability of serious reduction in potato production in Northeast China,North China,Central China and Northwest China is higher,while that of East China and South China is relatively small.Additiona

关 键 词：作物 相对气象产量 概率统计方法 风险评估 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S162.8[农业科学—农业气象学]