“21·7”郑州极端强降水过程在贵阳市的推演  

Deduction of the Zhengzhou July 2021 Extreme Precipitation Process——Assuming It Had Happened in Guiyang

作　　者：李忠燕[1,2] 曹蔚[1] 龙俐 张东海[1] 罗阳欢[1] Li Zhongyan;Cao Wei;Long Li;Zhang Donghai;Luo Yanghuan(Guizhou Climate Center,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resources,Guiyang 550002,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气候中心,贵阳550002 [2]贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵阳550002

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2023年第2期19-27,共9页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(41865005);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J018);中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-118)。

摘　　要：基于降水实况资料、高度场和风场再分析资料,对比分析了郑州“21·7”降水与贵州省“14·7”降水的成因,并利用Flood Area淹没模型对假定发生在贵阳的“21·7”强降水过程进行过程推演。结果表明:贵州省1 h、3 h、6 h、24 h极端降水量的空间分布特征基本相同,均具有自西北向东或向南递增的分布规律。西太平洋副热带高压、台风、高空槽、低涡切变均是郑州“21·7”和贵州“14·7”降水过程的重要影响系统,但系统的位置却大不相同,并且地形抬升作用对“21·7”降水过程至关重要。若郑州“21·7”降水发生在贵阳,贵阳淹没深度>2.4 m的区域将集中出现在云岩区和南明区的交界处、白云区中部、乌当区南部、花溪区北部,占贵阳市总面积的6.8%。对选定区域进行淹没模拟显示,随着降水量的增大,选定区域内淹没深度>2.4 m的增幅网格数呈现先增多后减少的变化趋势,而淹没深度>2.4 m的网格总数变化呈现前后增加缓慢、中间快速增加的变化特征。选定区域内各时次的淹没深度>2.4 m的网格总数和增幅网格数分别与各时效累积降水量和逐小时降水量呈明显的正相关。Based on observed precipitation data,height field and wind field reanalysis data,the causes of the extreme precipitation that occurred in Zhengzhou in July 2021(shorten as“21·7”extreme precipitation and the extreme precipitation in July 2014 in Guizhou Province(shortened as“14·7”extreme precipitation)are compared and analyzed.The Flood Area Inundation Model is used to deduce the“21·7”extreme precipitation in Zhengzhou,which is assumed to have occurred in Guiyang.The results show that the spatial distribution characteristics of the 1 h,3 h,6 h and 24 h extreme precipitation in Guizhou Province are basically the same,all having a distribution law of increasing from northwest to east or south.The western Pacific subtropical high,typhoons,high-level troughs,and low vortex shear are all critical systems impacting the“21·7”extreme precipitation in Zhengzhou and the“14·7”extreme precipitation in Guizhou Province,but the locations of the systems are different,and the topographic uplift is crucial to the“21·7”extreme precipitation in Zhengzhou.If the“21·7”extreme precipitation in Zhengzhou occurred in Guiyang,the submerged water depth of more than 2.4 m in Guiyang would be concentrated in the junction of Yunyan District and Nanming District,the central part of Baiyun District,the southern part of Wudang District,and the northern part of Huaxi District,which accounts for 6.8%of the total area of Guiyang.The simulation of the designated area shows that with the increase of precipitation,the number of incremental grids with submerged depth>2.4 m begins to increase and then decrease,while the total number of grids with submerged depth>2.4 m shows rapid increase in the middle and slow decrease at the beginning and the end.The total number of grids and the number of incremental grids with submerged depth>2.4 m at each time are significantly positively correlated with the accumulated precipitation and hourly precipitation,respectively.

关 键 词：郑州极端降水 Flood Area淹没模型 过程推演 贵阳市 

分 类 号：P458.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]