基于WRF-CMAQ模式的银川市空气质量预报效果检验分析  

Test and Analysis of Air Quality Forecast Effect in Yinchuan City Based on WRF-CMAQ Model

作　　者：陈敏[1,2] 邵建 杨苑媛 刘玉兰[1,3] 杜晴阳 Chen Min;Shao Jian;Yang Yuanyuan;Liu Yulan;Du Qingyang(Key Laboratory of Monitoring,Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agro-meteorological Disasters in Arid Regions,China Meteorological Administration,Yinchuan 750002,China;Yinchuan Meteorological Office,Yinchuan 750002,China;Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Yinchuan 750002,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,银川750002 [2]银川市气象局,银川750002 [3]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,银川750002

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2023年第2期83-91,共9页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：宁夏回族自治区自然基金项目(NZ15207);宁夏回族自治区青年拔尖人才培养项目(2017-RQ0086)。

摘　　要：利用2015年1月1日至2018年12月31日银川市逐日空气质量指数、污染物浓度、首要污染物类型等实况监测数据及空气质量预报资料,分析了AQI指数、空气质量等级、首要污染物浓度及类型分布特征,并对WRF-CMAQ模式对宁夏空气质量的预报效果进行了检验分析。结果表明:该预报对空气质量等级的预报效果不太理想,研究时段内,银川市空气质量等级预报的年度TS评分为20%~40%,漏报率和空报率较高。TS评分随年际变化呈递增趋势,漏报率和空报率呈递减趋势。空气质量等级为良时,TS评分显著高于其他等级的评分。AQI指数预报的平均绝对误差逐年减小,且呈现季节性的波动变化特征,并随污染等级增加总体上呈递增趋势。首要污染物类型的预报能力相对较好,模式对PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)浓度的预报效果在逐年改进,而对O_(3)浓度的预报能力在降低。经简单客观订正的银川市空气质量预报,各项预报要素的不同预报时次检验结果差异较小,即该预报产品的预报能力并未随预报时次缩短而出现较为明显的提升,表明其预报效果还有较大的提升空间。The characteristics of the air quality index(AQI),the air quality grade,the concentration and type distribution of primary pollutant are analyzed,and the forecast effect of the WRF-CMAQ model for Ningxia air quality is tested and analyzed by the use of the daily observation and forecast data of air quality index,pollutant concentration,primary pollutant types in Yinchuan City from January 1,2015 to December 31,2018.The results show that the forecast effect is not satisfactory for the air quality grades.The annual TS score of air quality grade forecast in Yinchuan is between 20%and 40%,with higher false alarm rate and missing forecast rate.The TS score has an increasing trend with the inter-annual change,while the false alarm rate and missing forecast rate show a decreasing trend.When the air quality is of a good grade,the TS score is significantly higher than that of other grades.The average absolute errors of the air quality index(AQI)forecast are declining year by year,characterized by seasonal fluctuation.However,the average absolute errors of the air quality generally show an increasing trend with the increase of pollution grades.The WRF-CMAQ model has a better capacity in predicting the primary pollutant types,the prediction effect of the model is improved year by year for PM_(2.5) and PM 10 concentration,but decreased for O_(3).Through simple and objective correction of the Yinchuan air quality forecast it is found that there is little difference among the tested forecast results at different forecast time of each forecast element,which suggests that the forecast performance has not been improved obviously with the variation of forecast timeliness,so the forecast still has more room to be improved for better effect.

关 键 词：空气质量 污染物浓度 预报 效果检验 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P456.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]