政策工具组合、居民消费率与宏观杠杆率——一个包含土地财政框架的NK-DSGE模型  

Policy Tool Combination,Household Consumption Rate and Macro Leverage Ratio--A NK-DSGE Model with Land Finance Framework

作　　者：宋利芳[1] 钟建乐 叶子豪 SONG Lifang;ZHONG Jian-le;YE Zi-hao(School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,Illinois 61801,USA)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [2]伊利诺伊大学厄巴那香槟分校,伊利诺伊州61801

出　　处：《安徽师范大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期82-96,共15页Journal of Anhui Normal University(Hum.&Soc.Sci.)

摘　　要：通过构建一个包含土地市场的四部门动态随机一般均衡模型,研究了土地财政背景下,土地供给政策、财政政策与货币政策及其组合对居民消费率、宏观杠杆率与总产出的作用机制。研究结果表明:短期视角下,使用减少土地供给的政策与宽松性利率政策的组合,可以熨平经济波动;中期视角下,使用减少土地供给的政策与稳健性财政政策的组合,可以实现提振居民消费率、降低宏观杠杆率以及促进经济增长三大政策目标;土地供给政策、财政政策而非货币政策是影响经济波动的主要因素。上述分析为认识土地财政模式的运行逻辑,并在此基础上设计、完善宏观政策组合调控提供了新的思路。By constructing a four-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including the land market,this paper studies the action mechanism of land supply policy,fiscal policy,monetary policy and their combination on the household consumption rate,macro leverage ratio and total output under the background of land finance.The results show that in the short run,the combination of a land supply reduction policy and a loose interest rate policy can smooth out economic fluctuations.In the medium-term perspective,the combination of land supply reduction policy and sound fiscal policy can achieve the three policy objectives of boosting the household consumption rate,reducing the macro leverage ratio and promoting economic growth.Land supply policy and fiscal policy rather than monetary policy are the main factors affecting economic fluctuations.The above analysis provides a new idea for understanding the operation logic of the land finance model,and on this basis,designing and perfecting macro-policy combination regulation and control.

关 键 词：土地财政 政策工具 居民消费率 宏观杠杆率 动态随机一般均衡 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]