品种管理制度改革的粮食增产效应研究  

Whether the Reform of the Variety Management System Has Promoted the Increase in Grain Production

作　　者：杨瑞 许航 王彦杰 高启杰[1] Yang Rui;Xu Hang;Wang Yanjie;Gao Qijie

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学人文与发展学院 [2]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《兰州学刊》2023年第5期147-160,共14页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“合作农业推广中组织间的邻近性与组织聚合研究”(项目编号:71173219);农业农村部农业农村资源等监测统计经费项目“特色农产品电商交易跟踪分析”(项目编号:202207211210319)。

摘　　要：粮食安全是“国之大者”,但学界关于粮食增产问题的研究缺乏来自种业领域的证据。基于2010—2019年全国31个省(区、市)的平衡面板数据,采用连续型双重差分模型,以2015年为政策冲击时间,实证检验品种管理制度改革对粮食生产的影响。研究表明:1.品种管理制度改革显著促进了粮食增产。2.粮食单产水平的提升是品种管理制度改革促进粮食增产的主要路径。品种管理制度不仅简化了审定程序,提高了良种的更新换代速度;而且拓宽了实验渠道,加速了品种的推广应用。3.品种管理制度改革的粮食增产效应具有异质性。从气候条件来看,湿润区明显更有助于品种管理制度改革效果的发挥;从地貌特征来看,相较于山地、高原地区,品种管理制度改革对平原、丘陵地带存在更为显著的增产效果;从土壤条件来看,品种管理制度改革的粮食增产效应随着农田生产潜力的增加而增强;从区域结构来看,政策的粮食增产效应在主产区更为突出。Food security is related to the fate of a country,but the academic research on food security lacks consideration from the seed industry.This paper uses the balanced panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019,adopts a continuous double difference model,and takes 2015 as the policy impact time to empirically test the impact of variety management system reform on grain production.The research shows that:(1)The reform of variety management system has significantly promoted grain production.(2)The improvement of grain yield per unit area is the main paths for the reform of variety management system to promote grain production.The variety management system not only simplifies the examination and approval procedure,but also improves the renewal speed of improved varieties;It also broadens the experimental channels and accelerates the popularization and application of varieties.(3)The effect of grain production increase of variety management system reform is heterogeneous.From the perspective of view of climate conditions,the humid area is obviously more conducive to the development of the effect of variety management system reform;From the perspective of geomorphological characteristics,the reform of variety management system has a significant effect on increasing production in plain and hilly areas;From the perspective of soil conditions,the grain yield increase effect of the variety management system reform increases with the increase of farmland production potential;From the perspective of regional structure,the grain production increase effect of the policy is more prominent in the main production areas.

关 键 词：品种管理制度改革 粮食产量 粮食安全 连续型双重差分模型 

分 类 号：F323.21[经济管理—产业经济]