关中汉唐帝陵区土地整治对粮食产能稳定性的影响  

Effects of Land Consolidation on the Stability of Grain Productivity inthe Han & Tang Dynasties Mausoleum Area of Guanzhong

作　　者：许晓婷[1] 马新萍[1] 赵敏宁[1] 焦俏 王思恩 XU Xiaoting;MAXinping;ZHAO Minning;JIAO Qiao;WANG Sien(School of Geography and Environment,Xianyang Normal University,Xianyang 712000,Shaanxi,China;Xi’an Sunward AEROMAT Co LTD,Xi’an 710038,China)

机构地区：[1]咸阳师范学院地理与环境学院,陕西咸阳712000 [2]西安向阳航天材料股份有限公司,陕西西安710038

出　　处：《咸阳师范学院学报》2023年第2期46-50,共5页Journal of Xianyang Normal University

基　　金：陕西(高校)哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目(20JZ098);陕西省社会科学基金项目(2019D028);咸阳师范学院科研基金项目(XSYK19025)。

摘　　要：为提高关中汉唐帝陵区土地整治效率,促进粮食稳产增产,采用H-P滤波法和改进后的C-D生产函数,分别构建粮食产量趋势预测回归模型和波动强度回归模型,分析2009—2018年土地整治对粮食产能稳定性的影响。结果显示:帝陵区粮食产量整体上处于波动下降趋势,在波动上呈现出波动较大—平稳—大起大落的特征,2017年波动率最大,超20%。土地整治规模对关中汉唐帝陵区粮食产量波动具有一定负向影响,而土地整治新增耕地面积则具有不显著的正向影响,可能是新增耕地质量不高所导致。因此促进帝陵区粮食产能稳定增长可通过加强土地综合整治、建设高标准农田、增加耕地面积、提高新增耕地质量、引进先进农业生产技术等措施实现。In order to ensure the land consolidation of Guanzhong Han and Tang Imperial Mausoleum area is to be carried out effectively,and promote the stable and increased grain yield,grain yield trend prediction regression model and fluctuation intensity regression model established by H-P filtering method and the improved C-D production function were used.The results show that:Grain production was in an overall downward trend of fluctuation on the whole,and showed the characteristics of large fluctuation—stable—large ups and downs in the fluctuation,with the highest fluctuation rate in 2017,more than 20%.The scale of land consolidation had a certain negative impact on grain yield fluctuation,while the area of new cultivated land increased by land consolidation had an insignificant positive impact,which may be caused by the low quality of new cultivated land.According to the research results,the stable growth of grain production capacity can be achieved by strengthening comprehensive land consolidation,building high-standard farmland,increasing the area of cultivated land,improving the quality of newly added cultivated land,and introducing advanced agricultural production technology.

关 键 词：土地整治 粮食产能 H-P滤波法 C-D生产函数 回归模型 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]