基于GM(1,1)灰色模型的某院药品使用情况的分析及预测  

Prediction of drug use in our hospital based on GM (1,1) grey model

作　　者：江雯 陈琼[1] 宋玉清 JIANG Wen;CHEN Qiong;SONG Yu-qing(The Affiliated Chuzhou Hospital of Anhui Medical University(The First People's Hospital of Chuzhou),Chuzhou 239000,Anhui)

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学附属滁州医院(滁州市第一人民医院),安徽滁州239000

出　　处：《安徽医专学报》2023年第2期7-9,共3页Journal of Anhui Medical College

摘　　要：目的:通过基于灰色模型对某院药品使用消耗进行预测分析,并对采购计划进行调整,以降低药品周转天数及减少短缺药品问题的发生。方法:根据2016-2021年某院HIS系统中导出每年全院药品、西药中成药、中药饮片颗粒剂使用金额作为参数,构建GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对该院2022-2025年药品使用金额进行预测评估。结果:根据全院药品、西药中成药使用所建立的灰色预测模型精度均大于95%,模型精度较高、拟合度较好,可用于中长期的外推预测,但是对中草药使用金额进行模型时拟合效果不佳。2022-2025年该院全院药品使用量逐年增加,其中西药中成药使用金额增长迅速。结论:灰色模型预测该院全院药品使用金额将继续保持增长态势,为提高采购药品计划精确度提供了参考。Objective:To predict and analyze the drug use and consumption in a hospital based on the Grey Model,and adjust the procurement plan to reduce the drug turnover days and reduce the occurrence of drug shortage.Methods:According to the annual consumption sum of drugs,western medicine,Chinese patent medicine and TCM tablets and granules derived from the HIS system of a hospital from 2016 to 2021 as parameters,a GM(1,1)Grey Prediction Model was constructed to predict and evaluate the consumption sum of drugs in the hospital from 2022 to 2025.Results:The accuracy of the Grey Prediction Model established based on the hospital-wide drugs,western medicine and Chinese patent medicine is more than 95%.The model has high accuracy and good fitting degree,which can be used for medium and long-term extrapolation prediction.However,the fitting effect is not good when the consumption amount of Chinese herbal medicine is modeled.From 2022 to 2025,the consumption amount of drugs in the hospital increased year by year,among which the consumption amount of western medicine and Chinese patent medicine increased rapidly.Conclusion:The grey model predicts that the drug consumption of the whole hospital will continue to increase,which provides a reference for improving the accuracy of the drug procurement plan.

关 键 词：灰色模型 使用金额 西药中成药 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]