参与国际循环如何影响中国国内大循环?——来自中国加入WTO的准自然实验  

How Does Participation in the International Cycle Affect China's Domestic Economic Circulation:Quasi-Natural Experiment from China's Entry into WTO

作　　者：黎峰[1] Li Feng(Institute of World Economics,Jiangsu Academy of Social Sciences,Nanjing 210004,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省社会科学院世界经济研究所,210004

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2023年第3期58-76,共19页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“国内价值链助推中国制造全球价值链攀升研究”(22BJL100)课题资助。

摘　　要：深度融入国际分工对国内大循环会产生何种影响?本文综合利用2000—2006年中国工业企业数据库、海关数据库及WIOD数据库,在识别间接参与国际循环企业的基础上,从微观层面探讨参与国际循环对企业国内循环参与行为的影响。以中国加入WTO作为准自然实验,研究发现,中间品进口关税对企业国内关联的“挤出效应”超过“溢出效应”。其中,沿海地区企业、国有企业、出口导向型企业、国内循环下游企业、高市场壁垒地区企业、高加成率企业、多产品企业中间品进口的“挤出效应”尤为显著。传导机制分析表明,中间品进口对企业国内循环参与的“挤出效应”主要表现在国内市场关联,由于进口中间品极大提升了产出规模和产品质量,在国内市场容量有限条件下,企业会更倾向于出口。How will deep integration into the international division of labor affect the do-mestic economic circulation?Based on the comprehensive use of China's industrial enterprise database,customs database and WIOD database from 2000 to 2006,and on the basis of identifying enterprises indirectly participating in international economic circulation,this paper discusses the impact of participating in international economic circulation on enterprises'domestic economic circulation participation behavior from the micro level.Taking China's entry into WTO as a quasi-natural experiment,it is found that the"crowding out ef-fect"of import tariffs on intermediate goods exceeds the"spillover effect".Among them,enterprises in coastal areas,state-owned enterprises,export-oriented enterprises,domestic circular downstream enterprises,enterprises in areas with high market barriers,enterprises with high mark-up rate,and multi-product enterprises have particularly significant"crowding out effect"on intermediate goods import.The analysis of transmission mechanism shows that the"crowding out effect"of intermediate goods imports on enterprises'domestic economic circulation participation is mainly reflected in the domestic mar-ket association.Because the import of intermediate goods greatly improves the output scale and product quality,enterprises will be more inclined to export under the condition of limited domestic market capacity.

关 键 词：国内循环 国际循环 国内市场关联 

分 类 号：F743.1[经济管理—国际贸易] F124[经济管理—产业经济]