2015-2021年甘肃省内脏利什曼病流行状况和时空聚类分析  

Prevalence and spatio-temporal clustering of visceral leishmaniasis in Gansu Province from 2015 to 2021

作　　者：余大为[1] 何爱伟 李凡[1] 冯宇[1] 杨成明[1] 侯言东[1] Yu Dawei;He Aiwei;Li Fan;Feng Yu;Yang Chengming;Hou Yandong(Department of Parasitic Disease,Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病防制科,兰州730000

出　　处：《中华地方病学杂志》2023年第4期274-279,共6页Chinese Journal of Endemiology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81703171)。

摘　　要：目的分析甘肃省内脏利什曼病(VL病)流行状况和时空聚类分布,为精准防控措施的制定和疫情监测提供依据。方法收集2015-2021年中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统中报告的甘肃省VL病病例资料,进行描述流行病学分析(三间分布),应用SaTScan v9.6和ArcMap 10.7软件进行病例的时空聚类分析。结果2015-2021年共报告368例VL病病例,其中,89.13%(328/368)集中在陇南市和甘南藏族自治州。2015-2017年VL病病例数逐年上升,2017年达到高峰(79例,21.47%),2018年起逐年下降。全年各月均有病例发生,以春季4月为发病高峰期(38例)。男女性别比为1.3∶1.0(208/160)。患者以≤5岁的散居儿童多见(41.30%,152/368)。时空聚类分析显示,以宕昌县和成县为聚集中心的2个VL病时空聚集区均具有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。结论甘肃省VL病的发病呈低度流行态势,具有时空聚集性,建议对不同流行程度的疫区开展精准监测和防控。Objective To analyze the epidemic status and spatial and temporal cluster distribution of visceral leishmaniasis(VL)in Gansu Province,and to provide evidence for making precise prevention and control measures and epidemic surveillance.Methods The data of VL cases in Gansu Province reported in the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System from 2015 to 2021 were collected,descriptive epidemiology analysis was performed(three distribution of the disease).SaTScan v9.6 and ArcMap 10.7 were used for spatio-temporal cluster analysis.Results A total of 368 VL cases were reported from 2015 to 2021,89.13%(328/368)were concentrated in Longnan City and Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture.The number of VL cases increased year by year from 2015 to 2017,reaching a peak in 2017(79 cases,accounting for 21.47%),and had decreased year by year since 2018.There were cases every month throughout the year,and the peak was in April in spring(38 cases).The ratio of male to female patients was 1.3∶1.0(208/160).Scattered children aged less than 5 years old were more common(41.30%,152/368).The spatio-temporal cluster analysis showed that both the spatial and temporal aggregation zones of VL in Tanchang County and Chengxian County were of statistical significance(P<0.05).Conclusion The incidence of VL in Gansu Province is showing a low epidemic trend,having spatio-temporal aggregation,and precise monitoring and prevention and control should be strengthened in epidemic areas with different prevalence levels.

关 键 词：利什曼病 内脏 流行状况 时空聚类 

分 类 号：R531.6[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]