央行数字货币视角下的国际货币竞争:一个理论分析及模拟  

International Currency Competition From the Perspective of Central Bank Digital Currency:A Theoretical Analysis and Simulation

作　　者：张敬思 李成刚 ZHANG Jingsi;LI Chenggang

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学中国西部绿色发展战略研究院、贵州省绿色发展战略高端智库 [2]贵州财经大学大数据应用与经济学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2023年第4期100-116,共17页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划重点课题(20GZZD61);贵州财经大学人才引进科研项目(XJ21119)。

摘　　要：央行数字货币(CBDC)是数字经济时代下货币演化的必然趋势。文章利用一个关于CBDC的非对称净收益函数,用于刻画CBDC未来潜在不可精确计量的收益、成本和风险,并以此建立CBDC两国博弈模型,对其在CBDC领域的不计息与计息策略进行理论分析和仿真模拟。结果显示:在信息不对称条件下,双方在一次博弈后就将达到计息均衡。而在完全信息条件下,双方在短期内进入计息均衡,但面临“囚徒困境”,此时风险水平相对较高国家的净收益下降会更快;长期而言,双方可能重新回到不计息均衡。此外,虽然计息可能导致未来净收益大幅下降,但一国有必要具备对CBDC进行计息的能力。Central bank digital currency(CBDC)is an inevitable trend of currency evolution in the era of digital economy.This paper uses an asymmetric net income function about CBDC to describe the potential imprecise benefits,costs and risks of CBDC in the future,and constructs a two-country game model of CBDC on this basis to conduct theoretical analysis and simulation of its non-interest-bearing and interest-bearing strategies in the field of CBDC.The results show that:under the condition of asymmetric information,both sides will reach the interest-bearing equilibrium after one game;under the condition of complete information,both sides will reach the interest-bearing equilibrium in a short time,but will face the“prisoner's dilemma”.At this time,the net income of the countries with relatively high risk level will decrease faster;in the long run,both sides may return to the non-interest-bearing equilibrium.In addition,although interest-bearing strategy may lead to a significant decline in net income in the future,a country must have the ability to adopt this strategy for CBDC.

关 键 词：央行数字货币 国际货币竞争 非对称净收益函数 博弈模型 

分 类 号：F82[经济管理—财政学]