西北地区气候暖湿化空间与季节差异分析  

Analysis of spatial and seasonal variations in climate warming and humidification in Northwest China

作　　者：张红丽 韩富强 张良[3] 王莉霞 孙源[4] 李富民 ZHANG Hongli;HAN Fuqiang;ZHANG Liang;WANG Lixia;SUN Yuan;LI Fumin(College of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Tianshui Normal University,Tianshui 741000,Gansu,China;College of Geographical Sciences and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,Xinjiang,China;Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction,Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China;National Climate Centre,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]天水师范学院资源与环境工程学院,甘肃天水741000 [2]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [3]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [4]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2023年第4期517-531,共15页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41875020);甘肃省自然科学青年基金(20JR10RA446);省青年科技基金(20JR10RA804)。

摘　　要：对我国西北地区气候暖湿化趋势的进一步探讨,有助于深入理解北半球中高纬干旱半干旱区对全球气候变暖的响应这一重要科学问题。利用西北地区1961—2021年127个台站的气温和降水量资料,结合线性趋势、Kriging插值、非参数Mann-Kendall检验等统计学方法,通过分析表明:(1)近60 a西北地区整体呈显著暖湿化趋势。区域升温趋势较为一致,为0.32℃·(10a)^(-1),增湿的区域不平衡特征明显,西北西部增湿较东部更早、更稳定和显著,西部主要分布在新疆西北部,而东部增湿主要分布在青海地区;(2)增温与增湿的年代际波动不平衡性突出,西北的气温和降水分别于1993年和2010年发生了突变现象,突变后的增温增湿气候倾向率分别较突变前高0.08℃·(10a)^(-1)和37.60 mm·(10a)^(-1),突变后暖湿化更为突出,并且以暖湿化东扩为主要特点;(3)暖湿化的季节不平衡性分析还表明,西北全域60 a以来,以冬季增暖最为显著,春季次之,但突变发生后东部和西部均调整为春季变暖最为显著;西北西部的冬季降水增加显著,西北东部春季与夏季降水增加明显。研究结果可为制定西北地区气候变化应对措施提供理论依据。Further exploration of trends in climate warming and humidification in Northwest China can deepen our understanding of important scientific issues regarding the responses to global warming of arid and semi-arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere in mid-and high latitudes.Using statistical methods such as linear trend,Kriging interpolation,and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for temperature and precipitation data from 127 stations in Northwest China from 1961 to 2021,we show the following:(1) In the last 60 years,Northwest China as a whole has undergone significant warming and humidification.The regional warming trend was relatively consistent [0.32 ℃·(10a)^(-1)],while there was a clear regional imbalance of humidification,with the humidification in the west of Northwest China increasing earlier,more steadily,and more significantly than in the east.(Increases in the west were mainly distributed in Northwest Xinjiang,while those in the east were mainly in the Qinghai region).(2) There were pronounced interdecadal fluctuations of warming and humidification,and paradigm shifts in temperature and precipitation trends of Northwest China occurred in 1993 and 2010,respectively,after which the rates of warming and humidification were 0.08 ℃·(10a)^(-1)and 37.60 mm ·(10a)^(-1)higher than beforehand.Warming and humidification were more prominent after these paradigm shifts,with the eastward expansion of warming and humidification being the main feature.(3) The seasonal imbalance of warming and humidification also showed that the warming was most significant in winter in western Northwest China,followed by that in summer;winter precipitation increased significantly in western Northwest China,while spring and summer precipitation increased significantly in eastern Northwest China.These results can provide a theoretical basis for formulating climate change countermeasures in Northwest China.

关 键 词：西北地区 暖湿化 气温 降水量 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]