西北地区农业干旱脆弱性评估及时空分布特征  

Vulnerability assessment and spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural drought in Northwest China

作　　者：李菲菲 周霞[1] 周玉玺 LI Feifei;ZHOU Xia;ZHOU Yuxi(College of Economics and Management,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271018,Shandong,China;School of Public Administration,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271018,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安271018 [2]山东农业大学公共管理学院,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2023年第4期663-669,共7页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(21BJY130,19BGJ171);山东省高等学校青年创新团队发展计划“农村环境治理与政策创新团队”。

摘　　要：西北地区是重要农牧交错区,生态环境脆弱,农业生产对气候变化极为敏感,研究其农业干旱脆弱性时空分布特征是有效应对干旱气候的关键。基于IPCC评估框架,考虑蒸散对土壤含水量的影响,将多时间尺度干旱指数纳入指标体系,研究西北地区农业干旱脆弱性及其时空分布特征。结果表明:2010—2020年该地区农业干旱脆弱性呈现下降态势,其中2010—2015年下降幅度最大,但区域均衡性减弱,出现“两极”现象;2015—2020年脆弱重心逐渐向南部地区转移,形成“辐射”效应。该地区农业干旱脆弱性冷热点区域变化显著,2010年热点区域集中在新疆西南部,冷点区域分布在新疆北部和宁夏;2020年热点区域转移至甘肃和青海南部,且呈现向外辐射现象,冷点区域主要集中在新疆北部地区。Northwest China is an important agro-pastoral interleaved region,with a fragile ecology and agricultural production that is extremely sensitive to climate change.Studying the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural drought vulnerability is key to effectively coping with drought.Based on the IPCC vulnerability assessment framework,considering the impact of evapotranspiration on soil water content,a multi-timescale drought index was incorporated into the index system,and the entropy weight method was used to measure the vulnerability of agriculture to drought;the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural drought vulnerability and the evolution of cold and hot spot areas were also analyzed.The results show that the vulnerability of agriculture to drought in the northwest region showed a downward trend from 2010 to 2020,with the largest decline in 2010 to 2015,but the regional equilibrium was weakened and there was a“polar”phenomenon.The cold and hot spots of drought vulnerability in the northwest region changed significantly.In 2010,the hot spots were concentrated in the southwest of Xinjiang,and the cold spots were distributed in the north of Xinjiang and Ningxia.In 2020,the hot spot area shifted to the south of Gansu and Qinghai,and showed an outward radiation phenomenon,while the cold spot area was mainly concentrated in northern Xinjiang.

关 键 词：西北地区 农业干旱脆弱性 IPCC评估框架 熵权法 空间热点探测分析 干旱指数 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]