基于系统动力学模型的胶州湾海域承载力预测  

Prediction of Marine Carrying Capacity of Jiaozhou Bay Based on System Dynamics Model

作　　者：夏正启 王凯 彭道民 朱玉贵[3] Xia Zhengqi;Wang Kai;Peng Daomin;Zhu Yugui(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;College of Marine Life Science,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China;College of Fisheries,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋生命学院,山东青岛266003 [3]中国海洋大学水产学院,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第6期123-133,共11页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42176234)资助。

摘　　要：基于胶州湾海域资源现状特点,本文从社会系统、经济系统、资源系统及环境系统来构建胶州湾海域承载力系统动力学模型,并设置两种情景(现状延续和高质量发展)来模拟预测胶州湾海域承载力关键变量的动态变化趋势。结果表明:在预测年份,人口总数、国内生产总值(GDP)总额及海洋产业产值继续呈现上扬趋势,海域承载力也逐渐提高;工业产值呈现下降趋势,其在现状延续情景下,下降幅度较大,而在高质量发展下,下降幅度变缓。总体而言,不同情景下各决策参数组合的发展趋势不同,在高质量发展情景下的参数组合更有利于改善海域承载力。According to the current characteristics of Jiaozhou Bay marine resources,this paper constructs the dynamic model of Marine carrying capacity system for Jiaozhou Bay from the social subsystem,economic subsystem,resource subsystem and environmental subsystem,and sets up two scenarios(current situation continuation and industrial ecology)to simulate and predict the dynamic change trend of key variables of Marine carrying capacity for Jiaozhou Bay.This research not only can provide a scientific basis for marine resources and environmental managers in carrying out environmental resources utilization and protection planning,but also provide a good demonstration and reference for the sustainable social and economic development of many adjacent gulf cities at home and abroad.The results show that:(1)the total population,total GDP and output value of marine industry will continue to show an upward trend,and the marine carrying capacity is also gradually increasing in the forecast year;(2)the industrial output value shows a downward trend.Particularly,the decline range is large under the continuation of the current situation,while the decline range becomes slow under the industrial ecology.Generally speaking,the development trend of each decision-making parameter combination under different scenarios is different,and the parameter combination under the scenario of industrial ecology is more conducive to improve the marine carrying capacity.

关 键 词：海域承载力 海洋资源 系统动力学 仿真模拟 

分 类 号：Q948.8[生物学—植物学] S932.8[农业科学—渔业资源]