面向人居环境适宜性的广东省水资源承载状态预测研究  

Prediction on Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Guangdong Province from Perspective of Human Settlements Suitability

作　　者：武翡翡 杨晓华[3] 康晶[1,2] 廉冰 王彦[1,2] Wu Feifei;Yang Xiaohua;Kang Jing;Lian Bing;Wang Yan(China Institute for Radiation Protection,Taiyuan 030006,China;Key Laboratory of Radiation Environment&Health of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Taiyuan 030006,China;School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]中国辐射防护研究院,山西太原030006 [2]国家环境保护辐射环境与健康重点实验室,山西太原030006 [3]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875

出　　处：《环境科学与管理》2023年第5期151-156,共6页Environmental Science and Management

基　　金：国家重点研发计划:人居环境生态承载力与生态安全评估技术研究(No.2017YFC0506603);国家自然科学基金面上项目:面向区域人居环境适宜性的水资源承载力智能评价与优化调控(No.52179001)。

摘　　要：构建面向人居环境适宜性的水资源承载指数系统动力学模型,对不同降雨频率下广东省及各市水资源承载状态进行预测分析。以2018年为基准年,2030年水资源承载状态预测结果表明,降雨频率P=25%和50%时,全省水资源承载指数分别为0.81和0.92,各市水资源承载指数分别介于0.54~1.34和0.61~1.49,广州、珠海等5市水资源超载。降雨频率P=75%时,全省水资源承载指数为1.06,各市水资源承载指数介于0.69~1.68,广州、珠海等9市水资源超载。有必要通过水资源优化调控改善缺水城市的水资源承载状态,提高水资源对人居环境的承载能力并促进适宜性发展。The system dynamics model of water resources carrying index was constructedfrom perspective of human settlements suitability.The water resources carrying status under different rainfall frequencies were predicted and analyzed in Guangdong Province and cities in 2030.Taking 2018 as the base year,the results indicated that the water resource carrying indexes in Guangdong province in 2030 were 0.81 and 0.92 under rainfall frequencies of 25%and 50%.They ranged from 0.54 and 1.34 under the rainfall frequency of 25%,and from 0.61 and 1.49 under the rainfall frequency of 50%at the municipal scale.Water resources were overloaded in five cities such as Guangzhou and Zhuhai.The water resource carrying index was 1.06 at the provincial scale.It ranged from 0.69 to 1.68 at the municipal scale under the rainfall frequency of 75%.Guangzhou,Zhuhai and other 7 cities exhibited the over-exploitation of water resources.It is essential to improve the water resource carrying status of water shortage cities through optimal regulation of water resources,which can increase the water resourcescarrying capacity to promote the suitabilitydevelopment of human settlements.

关 键 词：水资源承载指数 系统动力学模型 适宜性 广东省 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]