石河子垦区鲜食葡萄冬季休眠期冻害风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Freezing Injury to Table Grapes in Winter Dormancy Period in Shihezi Reclamation Area

作　　者：黄娟 顾雅文 王曼 谷然 HUANG Juan;GU Ya-wen;WANG Man;GU Ran(Xinjiang Xingnong Network Information Center,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆兴农网信息中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2023年第3期131-136,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区科学技术厅青年基金项目(2021D01B91);国家自然科学基金项目(41775109);2022年度新疆“三农”骨干人才培养项目(2022SNGGCY055)。

摘　　要：基于石河子垦区1981—2020年葡萄休眠期冻害发生的经济数据,以及气象、土壤、历史灾害等资料,采用主成分分析法构建了葡萄休眠期综合冻害指数;根据综合冻害指数,分析致灾因子的危险性,结合孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性、防灾减灾能力,运用层次分析法、加权综合评价法,建立了石河子垦区葡萄休眠期冻害风险评估模型。结果表明,影响石河子垦区鲜食葡萄休眠期冻害的气象因子为:平均地面温度(0 cm)、平均40 cm深地温、最高气温、最低气温、平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温;经验证,综合冻害指数特重等级准确率为100%,重度、中度均为67%以上,轻度和较轻度除莫索湾误差较大外,其余站点准确率均在70%以上。石河子垦区鲜食葡萄休眠期冻害整体表现为南部冻害等级低,冻害风险程度较轻,冻害风险程度呈现由南向北增加的趋势。Based on the economic data,meteorological data,soil data and historical disaster data of grape freezing damage during dormancy in Shihezi reclamation area from 1981 to 2020,the comprehensive freezing damage index of grape dormancy was constructed by the principal component analysis method.According to the comprehensive freezing damage index,the risk of disaster causing factors was analyzed,and the risk assessment model of grape dormancy in Shihezi reclamation area was established by AHP and weighted comprehensive evaluation method in combination with the sensitivity of disaster pregnant environment,the vulnerability of disaster bearing body and the ability of disaster prevention and reduction.The results showed that the meteorological factors affecting the freezing damage of table grape dormancy in Shihezi were average ground temperature(0 cm),average ground temperature(40 cm),maximum temperature,minimum temperature,average temperature,average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature.It has been verified that the accuracy of the special grade of the comprehensive freezing injury index is 100%,and the accuracy of the severe and moderate grades is more than 67%.The accuracy of other stations is more than 70%in the mild and mild grades except Mosuowan,where the error is large.The risk assessment model of freezing injury of Shihezi table grapes during dormancy period shows that the level of freezing injury in the south of the reclamation area is low,and the degree of freezing injury risk is light.The risk of freezing injury is increasing from south to north.

关 键 词：鲜食葡萄 休眠期 综合冻害指数 风险评估 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]