RCEP对中国出口日本农产品贸易影响及潜力分析  

Effect and Potential Analysis of RCEP on China’s Export of Agricultural Products to Japan

作　　者：樊晶慧 朱方林[1,2,3] 朱大威 FAN Jing-hui;ZHU Fang-lin;ZHU Da-wei(Wuxi Branch of Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Wuxi 214171,China;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanjing 210014,China;School of Finance and Economics,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省农业科学院无锡分院,江苏无锡214171 [2]江苏省农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,江苏南京210014 [3]江苏大学财经学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2023年第3期179-184,195,共7页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：江苏省农业三新工程(JATA[2021]434)。

摘　　要：以中国作为出口国,RCEP其他14个成员国作为进口国,通过构建贸易引力模型对2001—2020年的面板数据进行了实证分析,测算了中国对日本农产品的出口潜力。结果表明:中日两国GDP、日本人口规模以及同属于WTO成员国3个因素对贸易出口额有拉动作用,地理距离、关税水平及人均耕地面积3个因素对贸易出口额有抑制作用;潜力测算结果显示,2001—2020年中国与日本农产品出口潜力逐渐增大,至2020年贸易潜力值为0.50,属于潜力巨大型。鉴于此,提出了瞄准日本市场需求调整出口结构、加快基础设施建设降低农产品贸易成本、充分利用RCEP贸易规则深化两国农产品贸易合作等对策建议,以期促进中日农产品贸易潜力释放,推动双边农产品贸易可持续发展。China was taken as an exporter,and the other 14 RCEP members were taken as importers.The trade gravity model was constructed to empirically analyze the panel data from 2001 to 2020 and calculate the export potential of China’s agricultural products to Japan.The results show that GDP of China and Japan,population size of Japan and the factors belonging to WTO have a driving effect on trade export volume,while geographical distance,tariff level,and per capita arable land have a restraining effect on trade export volume.The potential estimation results show that the export potential of agricultural products between China and Japan increased in volatility from 2001 to 2020,and the trade potential value was 0.50 in 2020,indicating a huge potential.Based on the above analysis,in order to promote the release of the potential of Sino-Japanese agricultural trade under the framework of RCEP and promote the sustainable development of bilateral agricultural trade,China should adjust the export structure aiming at the demand of the Japanese market,speed up the construction of infrastructure to reduce the cost of agricultural trade,make full use of the trade rules of RCEP,and deepen the bilateral agricultural trade cooperation.

关 键 词：RCEP 中日农产品 贸易引力模型 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]