权重和数据影响下水资源承载力评价不确定性研究  

Uncertainty analysis on water resources carrying capacity evaluation under influences of indicator weights and data

作　　者：李占玲[1,2] 王佳雯 叶瀛韬 董俊巧 刘星才 LI Zhanling;WANG Jiawen;YE Yingtao;DONG Junqiao;LIU Xingcai(School of Water Resources and Environment,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Groundwater Conservation of MWR,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and the Surface Process,Institute of Geographical Science and Natural Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院,北京100083 [2]中国地质大学(北京)水利部地下水保护重点实验室(筹),北京100083 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第5期53-60,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：科技部第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2021xjkk0806);中国地质大学(北京)发展基金项目(F05037)。

摘　　要：水资源承载力是实现“空间均衡”的重要刚性约束条件,其科学评价对于地区生态文明建设与可持续发展具有重要理论与实践意义。以往研究多集中于确定性评价,然而受多种因素的影响,水资源承载力评价也存在一定的不确定性。以新疆地区为例,采用Bootstrap、均匀分布假设法的随机抽样以及随机误差生成等方法,借助隶属度及不确定度的概念,量化指标权重及指标数据不确定性对研究区水资源承载力评价结果的影响。结果表明:基于Bootstrap和均匀分布假设法,由指标权重不确定性导致的新疆地区水资源承载力评价等级不确定度分别为21%和17%,由数据不确定性导致的不确定度为8%;随着指标权重和数据不确定性的增加,研究区水资源承载力评价等级的不确定度均随之增加;通过增加等幅误差的方法表明,数据不确定性对研究区水资源承载力评价等级的影响更大。研究成果可为科学评价水资源承载力、降低其不确性提供参考。Water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)is an important rigid constraint to achieve spatial balance,and its scientific evaluation is of great importance for the construction of regional ecological civilization and sustainable development.Due to the effects of many factors,the evaluation of WRCC generally has some uncertainties,however,such uncertainty was not quantified in most of previous studies.Taking Xinjiang region as the study area,this study mainly focused on quantifying the uncertainty of WRCC evaluation caused by indicator weights and data.Bootstrap sampling,random sampling of uniform distribution hypothesis,random error generation methods were used in generating indicator weight samples and data samples.The concepts of membership degree and uncertainty degree were proposed to quantify the uncertainty in WRCC evaluation.The results showed that based on Bootstrap sampling and uniform distribution hypothesis,the uncertainty degrees of WRCC evaluation caused by the uncertain indicator weights were 21%and 17%in the study area,and that caused by the uncertain data was 8%.With the increases of uncertainty in weights and data,the uncertainty degrees of WRCC evaluation caused by them also increased.Furthermore,the data uncertainty had a greater impact on WRCC evaluation,according to the method of increasing the equal amplitude error.The research results can provide reference for regional economic development and sustainable utilization of water resources.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 不确定性 权重 隶属度 不确定度 BOOTSTRAP 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]