我国体育产业与医疗服务业共生关系分析——基于2004-2020年全国数据的VAR模型实证研究  

Analysis of Symbiotic Relationship between Sports Industry andMedical Service Industry in China——An Empirical Study of VAR Model Based on National Data from 2004 to 2020

作　　者：秦国阳 秦勇[2] QIN Guoyang;QIN Yong(Dept.of Physical Education,Shandong Normal Univ.,Jinan 250358,China;Lixia District Education Bureau,Jinan 250013,China)

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学体育学院,山东济南250358 [2]济南市历下区教育局,山东济南250013

出　　处：《体育教育学刊》2023年第2期33-39,共7页Journal of Physical Education

基　　金：山东省教育科学研究项目(22SJ152)。

摘　　要：基于共生理论,采用Eviews10.0软件构建VAR模型,以2004-2020年全国数据为依据,通过协整检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等对我国体育产业与医疗服务业发展效应进行实证分析。研究发现:(1)体育产业与医疗服务业之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,对各自发展均具有正向促进作用,医疗服务业每提升1%,就会带动体育产业增加1.0862%,体育产业与医疗服务业的共生模式为“非对称性互惠共生”;(2)脉冲响应结果表明,体育产业的增长对医疗服务业的冲击作用先升后降,而医疗服务业的冲击作用整体呈现下降趋势;(3)通过方差分解发现,体育产业的增长对医疗服务业的发展贡献度提升速度较快,对医疗服务业的发展起到了重要的推动作用。建议:注重协整关系,加强全民健身、全民健康和体医融合的优势互补;审视脉冲影响,辨析各变量阶段性特征、助力共生效应持续提升;区分方差分解,促进体育产业与医疗服务业对称性互惠共生发展;制定保障机制,为医疗及体育产业的共生和谐发展提供制度保障。Based on symbiosis theory,Eviews 10.0 software was used to construct a VAR model to empirically analyze the development effects of sports industry and medical service industry in China through co-integration test,impulse response and variance decomposition based on national data from 2004 to 2020.The study found that:(1)there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between sports industry and medical service industry,and they both have positive promotion effect on each other’s development;every 1%increase in medical service industry will lead to 1.0862%increase in sports industry,and the symbiosis mode of sports industry and medical service industry is“asymmetric reciprocal symbiosis”;(2)The impulse response results show that the impact of the growth of the sports industry on the medical service industry rises and then falls,while the overall impact of the medical service industry shows a decreasing trend;(3)The variance decomposition reveals that the growth of the sports industry contributes to the development of the medical service industry at a faster rate and plays an important role in promoting the development of the medical service industry.The paper proposes to focus on the co-integration relationship to strengthen the complementary advantages of national fitness,national health and sports-medical integration,examine the impact of impulses,identify the stage characteristics of each variable and help the symbiotic effect to continue to improve,distinguish the variance decomposition to promote the symmetrical and reciprocal symbiotic development of sports industry and medical service industry,formulate a guarantee mechanism to provide institutional protection for the symbiotic and harmonious development of medical and sports industries.

关 键 词：体育产业 医疗服务业 共生关系 VAR模型 共生路径 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]