基于WRF模式的城市尺度极端降雨空间格局特征研究——以珠海市为例  

Study of the spatial patterns of extreme rainfall events with WRF modeling-A Zhuhai case

作　　者：包正铎 杨清清 贺卫宁[4] 王文刚 王雷 BAO Zhengduo;YANG Qingqing;HE Weining;WANG Wengang;WANG Lei(School of Resource and Environmental Sciences,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072;Tsinghua Innovation Center in Zhuhai,Zhuhai 519000;Huadong Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 311122;China Machinery International Engineering Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410004;China Railway Water Group Co.,Ltd.,Xi'an 712000)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,武汉430072 [2]珠海深圳清华大学研究院创新中心,珠海519000 [3]中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,杭州311122 [4]中机国际工程设计研究院有限责任公司,长沙410004 [5]中铁水务集团有限公司,西安712000

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2023年第5期28-34,共7页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：利用区域气象模型WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)对欧洲气象中心大气再分析资料(ERA-Interim)进行动力学降尺度至4 km水平分辨率,反演模拟珠海市长期的逐年最大日降雨事件过程;基于广义极值理论(GEV)计算不同降雨历时(1 h和24 h)、不同重现期(2 a、5 a、10 a、20 a、50 a和100 a)下珠海市4 km格网的暴雨强度空间格局,以期为当地城市防灾减灾规划和洪涝风险评估提供科学支撑和建议。Regional fine resolution meteorological model was developed in Zhuhai region using Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF).With ERA-Interim re-analysis dataset as boundary and initial conditions,long-term annual daily maximum rainfall event simulations were performed to obtain 4km horizontal resolution grid-time series precipitation data.Then,the spatial pattern of the maximum precipitation with different rainfall duration(1 h and 24 h)and return periods(2,5,10,20,50 and 100 years)were estimated with the WRF model results and generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution.The results support the urban planning for Zhuhai’s disaster prevention and reduction,as well as the local flooding risk evaluation.

关 键 词：气候气象模拟 动力学降尺度 防灾减灾 极端降雨 暴雨风险区划 

分 类 号：TU984.113[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]