基于雷达回波光流场的天气预报数据误差识别  

Error Identification of Weather Forecast Data Based on Radar Echo Optical Flow Field

作　　者：郭艳萍[1] 高云 吕丙东 彭炜[1] GUO Yan-ping;GAO Yun;LV Bing-dong;PENG Wei(School of Computer and Network Engineering,Shanxi Datong University,Datong Shanxi 037009,China)

机构地区：[1]山西大同大学计算机与网络工程学院,山西大同037009

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2023年第4期499-503,共5页Computer Simulation

基　　金：山西省软科学研究计划项目(2019041023-5)。

摘　　要：天气预报数据具有相似度高、关联性强的特点,导致挖掘和分类的误差识别难度较大。为此提出新的天气预报数据误差识别方法。将雷达回波图划分为多个小空间区域,求解得到各空间的回波光流场。通过整合得到多普勒天气雷达测得的整个雷达回波光流场。利用解得的实际与预报回波相关系数,定量描述数据误差相关性,结合平均绝对误差与探测概率指标,定性补充预报数据误差分析结果。将预报数据误差的识别转换为数据挖掘与分类问题,以监督决策树理念为基础,建立误差识别模型。仿真以降水强度、位置以及形态展开误差识别检验。通过对错误、缺漏识别次数与识别时间等指标的验证,证明了所设计模型具有较高的误差识别精度,且短时预报的误差识别实时性较强。Weather forecast data has the characteristics of high similarity and strong correlation.However,it is difficult to identify mining errors and classification errors.Therefore,this paper puts forward a new method to identify weather forecast data errors.The radar echo image was divided into several small space regions at first.And then echo optical flow field of each space was solved.After integration,the whole optical flow field measured by Doppler weather radar was obtained.Moreover,the correlation coefficients between actual and predicted echoes were used to quantitatively describe the correlation between data errors.Combined with the mean absolute error and detection probability index,the analysis results of prediction data error were supplemented qualitatively.Then the identification of prediction data error was transformed into the problem of data mining and classification.Based on the concept of supervised decision tree,a model of error identification model was built.In this simulation,the identification and test of error were based on precipitation intensity,position and pattern.Through the verification of error,missing identification times and identification time,it is proved that the designed model has high accuracy of error identification and strong real-time performance in short-term forecast error identification.

关 键 词：雷达回波外推技术 预报数据误差 误差识别 光流场 有监督决策树 

分 类 号：TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]