社会主义现代化远景目标下的经济增长展望——基于潜在经济增长率的测算  

Prospects for Economic Growth under the Long-Range Objectives of Socialist Modernization:Based on the Measurement of the Potential Economic Growth Rate

作　　者：张晓晶 汪勇 Zhang Xiaojing;Wang Yong

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所,北京100710

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2023年第4期4-25,204,共23页Social Sciences in China

摘　　要：实现社会主义现代化远景目标,经济增长的重要性进一步凸显。在附加人力资本的增长核算框架内,考察人口老龄化加速、新冠疫情冲击与中美技术脱钩“三大新因素”对中国潜在经济增长率的影响,并评估供给侧结构性改革政策的“改革红利”,结果显示:基准情景下,中国“十四五”时期年均增速在5%以上,2035年人均GDP为2.43万美元,达到中等发达国家人均GDP 2.42万美元的水平;考虑“三大新因素”后,“十四五”时期潜在增长率相较基准情景年均下降1个百分点,2035年中国人均GDP为2.28万美元,比基准情景减少0.15万美元,低于中等发达国家水平;加入供给侧结构性改革,未来30年潜在经济增长率每年提升1个百分点左右,有效对冲“三大新因素”的不利影响,中国稳步实现社会主义现代化远景目标。The importance of economic growth in achieving the long-range objectives of socialist modernization has attained further prominence.Within the framework of growth accounting plus human capital,we examine the impact on China's potential economic growth rate of the“three new factors:”the acceleration of population ageing,the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the technological decoupling of China and the US.The findings of our assessment of the“reform dividend”of supply-side structural reform policies show that in the baseline scenario,China will have an average annual growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period of more than 5 percent,resulting in a GDP per capita of US$24,300 in 2035,that is,China will have reached the medium-sized developed country level of US$24,200 per capita.Once the“three new factors”are taken into account,the potential growth rate in the same period decreases by one percentage point per year compared to the baseline scenario,and China's GDP per capita in 2035 will be US$22,800,which is US$1,500 lower than the baseline scenario and below the level of medium-sized developed countries.The incorporation of supply-side structural reforms will raise the potential economic growth rate by around one percentage point per year over the next thirty years,effectively offsetting the adverse effects of the“three new factors”and enabling China to steadily achieve its vision of socialist modernization.

关 键 词：社会主义现代化 潜在经济增长率 人口老龄化 新冠疫情 技术脱钩 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]