延迟退休、养老金福利损失与配套政策  

Delayed Retirement,Loss of Pension Benefits and Supporting Policies

作　　者：范维强[1,2] 杨华磊 FAN Weiqiang;YANG Hualei(School of Economics and Management,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330013 [2]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2023年第5期92-104,共13页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“生育与老年人福利问题研究”(21FRKB003);湖北省社会科学基金重大项目“中国1960后婴儿潮一代退休对未来经济增长的影响研究”(21ZD011)。

摘　　要：通过构建反映任一时点特征的终身现值精算模型,以城镇职工养老保险为例,探究延迟退休对个人养老金福利的影响。基于现实可行参数,进行模拟研究发现:第一,延迟退休的出台会导致个人养老金福利损失。相比退休制度不变,即时退休和逐步退休分别使得个人养老金净收益平均下降38.10万元和33.78万元,并使得个人养老金出现缴不抵收的局面。第二,在实行延迟退休的同时,辅之以降低缴费率和提高养老金待遇等配套性政策,可减少延迟退休带来的负面影响。当即时退休缴费率最高达到8.40%或养老金增速提高幅度最低为5.20%时,逐步退休缴费率最高达到9.34%或养老金增速提高幅度最低为3.60%时,延迟退休下的未来历年个人养老金净收益均不低于退休制度不变时未来历年个人养老金的净收益。相比单方面调整缴费率或养老金增速,降低缴费率和提高养老金增速的政策组合效应,使得个人生命周期内的养老金净收益改善情况更为显著。上述研究的政策启示在于,延迟退休与降低缴费率、提高养老金待遇等政策相配套的使用,可有效减少延迟退休政策的改革阻力。By constructing an actuarial model of lifetime present value that reflects the characteristics of any time point,this paper takes urban employee pension insurance as an example to explore the impact of delayed retirement on individual pension benefits.Based on realistic and feasible parameters,it is found that:(1)Delayed retirement will lead to the loss of personal pension benefits.Compared to the unchanged retirement system,immediate retirement and gradual retirement result make the net income of personal pension decrease by￥380100 and￥337800 on average respectively,and even make the personal income can not cover expenditure.(2)The implementation of delayed retirement is complemented by complementary policies such as lower contribution rates and higher pension benefits,which can reduce the negative effects of delayed retirement.When the maximum immediate retirement contribution rate reaches 8.40%or the minimum pension increase rate is 5.20%,and when the maximum gradual retirement contribution rate reaches 9.34%or the minimum pension increase rate is 3.60%,the net benefits of individual pensions in future calendar years under delayed retirement are not lower than the net benefits of individual pensions in future calendar years when the retirement system remains unchanged.The combined effect of lower contribution rates and higher pension increases results in more significant improvements in net pension returns over the individual’s life cycle than unilateral adjustments in contribution rates or pension increases.The policy implications of the above study are,first,that the introduction of a delayed retirement policy should not be implemented in isolation and needs to be complemented by corresponding complementary policies.Second,a gradual retirement scheme is less resistant to reform than an immediate retirement scheme,and on balance,a gradual retirement scheme is more conducive to reducing resistance to reform.Third,the introduction of delayed retirement is complemented by complementary policies such as low

关 键 词：延迟退休 降低缴费率 养老金增速 个人养老金 终身现值精算模型 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险] F224