新型城镇化高质量发展生态效应的空间溢出及门槛特征  

Spatial Spillover and Threshold Characteristics of Ecological Effects of High-quality Development of New-type Urbanization

作　　者：蒋正云 宋金平 赵晓迪 Jiang Zhengyun;Song Jinping;Zhao Xiaodi

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [2]东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海200050

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2023年第5期97-112,共16页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“大都市郊区城市功能与居民行为交互作用机理及结构优化研究”(42171170),主持人:宋金平。

摘　　要：高质量发展要求新时期城镇化建设与资源环境承载相适应,而城镇-生态系统发展的历史性和异质性导致二者间的互动关系趋于复杂化。通过对新型城镇化高质量发展生态溢出效应的机制梳理,基于STIRPAT分析框架,采用空间计量和面板门槛模型对我国新型城镇化高质量发展生态溢出效应的空间关联和非线性特征进行了实证检验。研究发现:新型城镇化与生态环境质量的发展演变呈现较高强度的空间关联和非对称格局,新型城镇化的高质量发展对生态环境具有积极且显著的直接效应与空间溢出特征,区域间的正向辐射强于本地区发展的直接溢出,本地区生态环境的改善则对邻近地区具有短时期的负向外溢;动态上二者间的溢出效应形式受到显著的单一门槛约束表现为非均衡的“U”型演化轨迹。由此,提出各级政府要因地制宜实施差异化的城镇化策略,准确把握二者发展的动态关系等相关政策建议。High-quality development requires that the urbanization construction in the new era should be compatible with the carrying capacity of resources and environment,and the historicity and het-erogeneity of urban-ecological system development lead to the complexity of the interaction between the two.Based on the STIRPAT analysis framework,the spatial correlation and nonlinear characteristics of the ecological spillover effect of high-quality development of new-type urbanization in China are empirically tested by spatial measurement and panel threshold model.It is found that the development and evolution of new-type urbanization and ecological environment quality show a high-intensity spatial correlation and asymmetric pattern.The high-quality development of new-type urbanization has a positive and signifi-cant direct effect and spatial spillover characteristics on the ecological environment.The positive radiation between regions is stronger than the direct spillover of the development of the region,and the improvement of the ecological environment in the region has a short-term negative spillover to the neighboring regions.Dynamic spillover effect between the two forms by a significant single threshold constraint showed a non-equilibrium“U”type of evolutionary trajectory.Therefore,it is proposed that governments at all levels should implement differentiated urbanization strategies according to local conditions and accurately grasp the dynamic relationship between the two.

关 键 词：高质量发展 新型城镇化 生态环境 STIRPAT模型 空间溢出 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F127.5[经济管理—世界经济]