西部欠发达地区低收入群体返贫致贫风险评估及影响因素分析  

Risk Assessment and Influencing Factors Analysis of Re-poverty Among Low-income Groups in the Western Underdeveloped Areas

作　　者：孙晗霖[1] 蒲彦鑫 侯青青 SUN Hanlin;PU Yanxin;HOU Qingqing(College of State Governance,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学国家治理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期131-142,共12页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(21CSH040);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(博士启动项目)(SWU2109540);西南大学创新研究2035先导计划“中国乡村振兴学”项目;西南大学研究阐释党的二十大专项项目资助;国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202210635088)。

摘　　要：对低收入群众返贫致贫风险研判是西部欠发达地区巩固脱贫攻坚成果和乡村振兴有效衔接的重要举措。但当前政策对于防止返贫致贫的瞄准办法较泛化,其识别效果有待考证。该研究综合采用了收入比例法、VEP、BP神经网络分类对西部欠发达地区低收入群众的返贫致贫风险进行了分析,基于此提取出高风险群体并归纳其共性与特性,与现有帮扶政策进行匹配。研究表明,当前西部欠发达地区低收入群众有20%~30%概率在未来返贫或致贫,各地区之间风险程度存在明显差异;收入、家庭内部异质性均会直接影响整体风险水平;当前我国执行的“人均纯收入低于6 600元”和“两不愁三保障”的宽口径识别标准对于西部欠发达地区易返贫致贫群体的甄别是合理的,可瞄准大部分高风险群体,但还应将反映维稳能力的其他类风险、疾病风险、失业风险以及人力资本、社会资本存量情况纳入识别体系之中,并持续重点关注建档立卡脱贫户的生计状况。在相对贫困线划定方面,若参考OECD国家标准,则应将我国西部欠发达地区相对贫困标准设定为居民收入中位数的40%。The study on the risk of low-income people returning to poverty is an important measure to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation and rural revitalization in the western underdeveloped areas.However,the current policy has a more extensive targeting method for preventing returning to poverty,and the identification effect remains to be verified.In this paper,the income ratio method,VEP and BP neural network classification are comprehensively used to analyze the risk of re-poverty among low-income people in the western underdeveloped areas.Based on this,the high-risk groups are extracted and their commonalities and characteristics are summarized,which are matched with the existing policies.The results show that 20%~30% of the low-income people in the western underdeveloped areas are likely to return to poverty or be poor in the future,and there are obvious differences in the degree of risk among different regions.Both income and household heterogeneity will directly affect the overall risk level.At present,the identification standards for screening potential groups in the western underdeveloped areas is reasonable,which can target most high-risk groups.However,risks and capital circumstances should also be included in the identification system,and the livelihood status of poverty-stricken households should be continuously focused.In terms of relative poverty line demarcation,with reference to the standards of OECD countries,the relative poverty line of western minority areas should be set as 40% of median income.

关 键 词：西部欠发达地区 低收入群体 返贫致贫风险 

分 类 号：F325.15[经济管理—产业经济] D422.7[政治法律—政治学]