Rapid Damage Prediction and Risk Assessment for Tropical Cyclones at a Fine Grid in Guangdong Province,South China  

作　　者：Yazhou Ning Xianwei Wang Qi Yu Du Liang Jianqing Zhai 

机构地区：[1]School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,510275,China [2]Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Public Security and Disasters,Guangzhou,510275,China [3]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai,519082,China [4]National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing,100081,China

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2023年第2期237-252,共16页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFC3001000);National Natural Science Foundation of China (41871085);the Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (311021004)。

摘　　要：Rapid damage prediction for wind disasters is significant in emergency response and disaster mitigation,although it faces many challenges.In this study,a 1-km grid of wind speeds was simulated by the Holland model using the 6-h interval records of maximum wind speed(MWS) for tropical cyclones(TC) from 1949 to 2020 in South China.The MWS during a TC transit was used to build damage rate curves for affected population and direct economic losses.The results show that the Holland model can efficiently simulate the grid-level MWS,which is comparable to the ground observations with R2 of0.71 to 0.93 and mean absolute errors(MAEs) of 3.3 to 7.5 m/s.The estimated damage rates were in good agreement with the reported values with R^(2)=0.69-0.87 for affected population and R^(2)=0.65-0.84 for GDP loss.The coastal areas and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have the greatest risk of wind disasters,mainly due to the region’s high density of population and developed economy.Our proposed method is suitable for rapid damage prediction and supporting emergency response and risk assessment at the community level for TCs in the coastal areas of China.

关 键 词：Damage prediction Holland model Risk assessment South China Tropical cyclones Wind disasters 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]