Perspectives on Compound Flooding in Chinese Estuary Regions  

作　　者：Hanqing Xu Elisa Ragno Jinkai Tan Alessandro Antonini Jeremy D.Bricker Sebastiaan N.Jonkman Qing Liu Jun Wang 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Eco-Chongming(IEC),Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education and School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai,200241,China [2]Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences,Delft University of Technology,2628 CN,Delft,The Netherlands [3]School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System of Ministry of Education,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai,519082,China [4]Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of Michigan,Ann Arbor,MI,48109,USA

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2023年第2期269-279,共11页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：sponsored by the Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.18ZDA105);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41971199);Jinkai Tan is thankful for financial support from the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2021M693584);Hanqing Xu is thankful for financial support from the program of China Scholarships Council(Grant No.202006140040)。

摘　　要：Extreme surges and rainfall represent major driving factors for compound flooding in estuary regions along the Chinese coast.The combined effect of extreme surges and rainfall(that is,compound floods)might lead to greater impacts than if the drivers occurred in isolation.Hence,understanding the frequency and severity of compound flooding is important for improving flood hazard assessment and compound flood resilience in coastal cities.In this study,we examined the dependence between extreme surges and corresponding rainfall events in 26 catchments along the Chinese coastline during typhoon and non-typhoon seasons using copula functions,to identify where the two drivers more often occur together and the implication for flood management in these locations.We found that the interaction between flood drivers is statistically significant in 10catchments located around Hainan Island(south)and Shanghai,where surge peaks occur mainly during the typhoon season and around the Bohai Sea(north),where surge peaks occur mainly during the non-typhoon season.We further applied the copula-based framework to model the dependence between surge peaks and associated rainfall and estimate their joint and conditional probability in two specific locations—Hainan Island and the Bohai Sea,where the correlation between flood drivers is statistically significant.We observed that in Hainan Island where most of the surge peaks occur during the typhoon season,extreme rainfall events during the typhoon season are generally more intense compared to annual maxima rainfall.In contrast,around the Bohai Sea where surge peaks occur mainly outside the typhoon season,rainfall is less intense than annual maxima rainfall.These results show that the interaction between extreme surges and rainfall can provide valuable insight when designing coastal and urban infrastructure,especially in highly populated urban areas prone to both coastal and pluvial flooding,such as many Chinese coastal cities.

关 键 词：China Coastal catchments Compound flooding Copula function Extreme surge Optimal threshold 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]