气候变化对云南橡胶潜在种植区的影响  

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Planting Areas of Rubber Trees in Yunnan

作　　者：鲁韦坤[1] 李蒙[1] 胡雪琼[1] 李湘[2] Lu Weikun;Li Meng;Hu Xueqiong;Li Xiang(Yunnan Climate Center,Kunming 650034;Yunnan Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034)

机构地区：[1]云南省气候中心,昆明650034 [2]云南省气象台,昆明650034

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2023年第3期379-384,共6页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201823,CCSF201915,CCSF202011);云南省科技厅重点研发计划(2018BC007)。

摘　　要：利用1981—2020年气象观测数据,从种植气候适宜性区划角度分析气候变化对云南橡胶潜在种植区的影响。结果显示:2011—2020年与1981—1990年相比,云南南部和东部地区橡胶种植县大部地区的年平均气温升高0.6~0.8℃,西部大部地区升高1.0℃以上;哀牢山以东橡胶种植县大部地区1月平均气温升高0~1.0℃,以西大部地区则升高1.0~2.0℃;2011—2020年云南橡胶潜在种植区区划与1981—1990年相比,最适宜区增加55.3%,适宜区增加18.6%,增加区域主要分布在哀牢山以西。云南橡胶潜在种植区发生明显变化,气候变化使哀牢山以西地区更适宜橡胶种植和产业的发展。Based on the meteorological observations since 1981,the impact of climate change on rubber tree planting in Yunnan is analyzed from the aspect of the climatic suitability of rubber tree.The results show that annual average temperature of the main rubber producing counties in the south and east increases by 0.6-0.8℃in most areas,and more than 1.0℃in most areas in the west.In January,the average temperature in most areas of the main rubber producing counties in the east of the Ailao Mountain increases by 0-1.0℃,while that in the west increases by 1.0-2.0℃in the 2010s compared with the 1980s.At the same time,the most suitable and suitable climate area for rubber tree planting increase by 55.3%and 18.6%,respectively.The increased areas are mainly distributed in the west of the Ailao Mountain,indicating that the west area of the Ailao Mountain is more suitable for rubber tree planting due to climate change.

关 键 词：气候变化 橡胶树 气候适宜性区划 云南 

分 类 号：S794.1[农业科学—林木遗传育种] P467[农业科学—林学]