黄河中游典型流域近60年水沙变化趋势及影响因素  

Variation Trend and Influencing Factors of Water and Sediment in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River in Recent 60 Years

作　　者：曲绅豪 周文婷 张翔 佘冬立[1] QU Shenhao;ZHOU Wenting;ZHANG Xiang;SHE Dongli(College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,HoHai University,Nanjing 211100;Research Center of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Education,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100)

机构地区：[1]河海大学农业科学与工程学院,南京211100 [2]中国科学院教育部水土保持与生态环境研究中心,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2023年第3期35-42,共8页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：中国科学院“西部之光”计划项目。

摘　　要：为分析黄河水沙成因并预测未来水沙情势,选取黄河中游多沙粗沙区昕水河和朱家川2条流域为研究对象,依据水文站及雨量站1956—2018年降雨和径流泥沙实测数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势及突变检验、累积距平法和Morlet连续小波分析等方法探讨流域水沙变化趋势,并利用双累积曲线法对水沙变化进行归因分析,量化气候变化及人类活动对水沙变化的相对贡献。结果表明:1956—2018年,昕水河和朱家川小流域年均径流量分别为11.9×10^(7),1.7×10^(7)m^(3),年均输沙量分别为12.3×10^(6),9.8×10^(6)t,径流和输沙量均呈显著减少趋势;2条流域的径流量突变年分别为1980年和1984年,输沙量突变年分别为1980年和1972年;选取的2条流域水沙变化存在明显周期性,径流变化的第1主周期分别为45年和16年,输沙量变化的第1主周期分别为9年和15年;降雨对昕水河和朱家川小流域径流量减少的贡献率分别为19%,8%,对输沙量减少的贡献率分别为25%,35%,远不及人类活动的贡献率,人类活动是径流和输沙量锐减的主导因素。研究结果可为黄河水沙治理提供科学性建议。In order to analyze the origin of water and sediment in the Yellow River and predict the future water and sediment situation,two typical watersheds(Xinshui River and Zhujiachuan watershed)in the middle reaches of the Yellow River were selected as the study area.Based on the measured data of water and sediment from 1956 to 2018 at the hydrological station and rainfall station,the Mann-Kendall trend,the change-point analysis,the cumulative anomaly method and the Morlet wavelet method were used to analyze the variation trend of water and sediment in typical watersheds.Furthermore,the attribution of water and sediment changes were analyzed by using the double mass curve method,and the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to water and sediment change were quantified.The results showed that from 1956 to 2018,the average annual runoff in the Xinshui River and Zhujiachuan watershed was 11.9×10^(7) and 1.7×10^(7) m^(3),respectively,and the average annual sediment discharge was 12.3×10^(6) and 9.8×10^(6) t,respectively.The runoff and sediment discharge showed a significant decreasing trend.The abrupt change year of runoff in the Xinshui River and Zhujiachuan watershed was 1980 and 1984,respectively,and the abrupt change year of sediment discharge was 1980 and 1972,respectively.The changes of water and sediment in the watersheds had obvious periodicity,and the first main cycle of runoff change was 45 years and 16 years,and the first main cycle of sediment transport change was 9 years and 15 years,respectively.The contribution rate of rainfall to the reduction of runoff in Xinshui River and Zhujiachuan watershed was 19% and 8%,respectively,and the contribution rate of rainfall to the reduction of sediment discharge was 25% and 35%,respectively.The Contvibution rate of rainfall is far lower than that of human activities,which are the leading factor of the sharp decrease of runoff and sediment discharge.The research results can provide scientific suggestions for water and sediment control of the Ye

关 键 词：黄河中游 水沙关系 影响因素 双累积曲线 

分 类 号：TV882.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]