基于Bayes判别构建吉林省玉米干旱发生等级动态预警模型  

Dynamic Early Warning Model of Maize Drought Grade Based on Bayes Discriminant in Jilin Province

作　　者：穆佳 史学家 蒋梦姣 吴迪 刘琰琰 MU Jia;SHI Xue-jia;JIANG Meng-jiao;WU Di;LIU Yan-yan(Jilin Province Science and Technology Innovation Center of Agro-meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment and Prevention&Jilin Meteorological Science Institute,Changchun 130062,China;Plateau Atmospheres and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province&School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225)

机构地区：[1]吉林省气象科学研究所/吉林省农业气象灾害风险评估与防控科技创新中心,长春130062 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,成都610225

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2023年第5期410-422,共13页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：吉林省气象局科研项目(201910);四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目(2020YJ0359)。

摘　　要：利用吉林省1961-2020年逐日气象资料和1980-2019年玉米发育期数据,采用水分亏缺指数构建玉米生长季逐日干旱等级序列,并分析玉米干旱发生规律。通过秩相关分析和Bayes判别分析,构建吉林省玉米干旱发生等级动态预警模型,并对其进行评估及应用。结果显示:吉林省中西部和东部的延边州是典型玉米干旱区,播种-出苗、拔节-抽雄是玉米干旱高发时段。在典型玉米干旱区,春旱动态预警模型预测基本准确率大致介于60%~90%,卡脖旱动态预警模型预测基本准确率普遍介于80%~100%。各分区玉米生长季干旱等级预警模型的平均预测基本准确率均超过90%,不同发育阶段干旱等级预警效果东部优于中西部。对于2020年玉米干旱过程,春旱预警模型预测准确率为55.7%~78.7%,卡脖旱预警模型预测准确率为60.7%~80.3%;模型预警等级与实际旱情发生等级基本一致的准确率在91%以上,说明基于Bayes判别的玉米干旱等级预警模型在吉林省应用效果较好。Based on daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2020 and maize developmental stages data from 1980 to 2019,water deficit index was selected to construct drought grade sequence during maize growing season and to analyze characteristics of maize drought in Jilin province.Dynamic early warning model of maize drought grade was built and evaluated based on rank correlation analysis and Bayes discriminant analysis.The results showed that the west and middle of Jilin province and Yanbian city were typical maize drought areas.Maize drought had high frequencies at two stages,which were sowing to seedling and jointing to tasseling.The basic accuracy rate(BA_(r))of dynamic early warning model on spring drought of maize was 60%−90%,while that was 80%−100%on strangle hold drought in typical maize drought areas.Besides,average BA_(r) of forecast test of early warning of drought grade in different subdivisions were more than 90%.The BA_(r) of forecast test of early warning model was better in the east part of Jilin province than that in the west and middle.In 2020,the accuracy rate(Ar)of forecast test on spring drought was 55.7%−78.7%,and the Ar of forecast test on strangle hold drought was 60.7%−80.3%.The BA_(r) between early warning grade and actual grade was over 91%.The early warning model of maize drought grade based on Bayes discriminant analysis was suitable for Jilin province.

关 键 词：玉米 干旱等级预警 Bayes判别分析 水分亏缺指数 吉林省 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学] S423