基于乘客画像的市域(郊)铁路客流预测方法  

Passenger Characteristics-Based Passenger Flow Prediction Method for Metropolitan Railway

作　　者：王静 赖艺欢 刘剑锋 WANG Jing;LAI Yihuan;LIU Jianfeng(Beijing Urban Construction Design&Development Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100037,China;Beijing Urban Construction Transport Planning&Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]北京城建设计发展集团股份有限公司,北京100037 [2]北京城建交通设计研究院有限公司,北京100037

出　　处：《城市交通》2023年第2期102-108,10,共8页Urban Transport of China

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“城市多模式交通网运行仿真系统平台开发”(2019YFB1600200)。

摘　　要：客流预测是市域(郊)铁路规划设计的必要环节和重要依据,然而其研究体系和技术方法仍处于初步实践阶段。考虑旅客群体异质性,提出基于乘客画像的复杂客群解析方法,归纳既有市域(郊)铁路的客流特征。完善并创新市域(郊)铁路客流预测方法,提出分客群、分层次交通需求分析以及多情景、多时间维度线路客流预测技术路线。同时,明晰市域(郊)铁路与城市轨道交通客流预测内容的异同,基于市域(郊)铁路建设的二元场景指出利用既有铁路开行市域(郊)列车的线路应增加旅客聚集人数、不同运营时刻表和客运组织模式对客流的影响等分析内容。以某市郊铁路S1线为例,从需求分析、网络化运营、站城一体化开发、多源数据融合等角度总结市域(郊)铁路客流预测需关注的问题,实现对客流预测工作的精细化管理。Though passenger flow prediction is of vital importance for metropolitan railway planning,the systematic research and methodology are still in the stage of exploration.Considering the passengers'heterogeneity,a method for analyzing complex passenger groups based on passenger features is proposed to summarize the passenger flow characteristics of metropolitan railway.On such basis,this paper improves and innovates the passenger flow prediction theory for metropolitan railway,puts forward demand analysis of different-type passengers,and prediction technology roadmaps in multi-scenario and multi-temporal dimensions.In addition,the similarities and differences in the prediction between urban rail transit and metropolitan railway are analyzed.Based on the dual scenario of metropolitan railway construction,the paper points out that the influence of the number of passengers,different operating schedules,and passenger organization modes on passenger flow should be considered for new-constructed lines.Finally,the key points of passenger flow prediction of metropolitan railway are summarized from the perspectives of demand analysis,network operation,station and city integration,and multisource data fusion,so as to realize the refined management of passenger flow prediction.

关 键 词：市域(郊)铁路 客流预测 客流特征 需求分析 

分 类 号：U491.12[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]