通货膨胀预期监测方法的比较与借鉴  

Comparison and Reference of Infl ation Expectation Measurement Methods

作　　者：高婧[1] GAO Jing

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行天津分行,天津市300041

出　　处：《吉林金融研究》2023年第2期8-13,47,共7页Journal of Jilin Financial Research

摘　　要：通货膨胀预期监测和管理对中央银行具有重要意义和应用价值。目前国外的通胀预期监测框架较为成熟,测度通胀预期的方法可分为基于调查的通胀预期和基于市场的通胀预期两类,也有采用一定方法将二者结合的综合通胀预期指标。本文对国内外通胀预期监测方法进行了详细梳理,并列举了各国的实践应用情况。在此基础上,借鉴国外经验,对完善国内通胀预期监测体系提出了相关改进建议。The measurement and management of inflation expectation is of great significance to central banks.At present,the foreign inflation expectation monitoring frameworks are relatively mature.The methods of measuring inflation expectation abroad can be divided into two categories:survey-based inflation expectation indicators and market-based inflation expectation indicators.There are also comprehensive indicators that combine the two methods.This paper reviews the measurement methods of inflation expectation at home and abroad in detail,and lists the practical applications of various countries.In the end,it puts forward some suggestions for improving the domestic inflation expectation monitoring system based upon the experience of foreign countries.

关 键 词：通货膨胀预期 预期管理 认知偏差 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]