基于潜类别Logit模型的两轮车骑行者头部损伤影响因素研究  

An Analysis of The Impact Factors of Head Injuries of Two-wheeler Riders Using a Latent Class Logit Model

作　　者：殷豪 林淼[2] 王鹏 朱彤[1] 魏田正 YIN Hao;LIN Miao;WANG Peng;ZHU Tong;WEI Tianzheng(College of Transportation Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China;China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300300,China;School of Automobile,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学运输工程学院,西安710064 [2]中国汽车技术研究中心有限公司,天津300300 [3]长安大学汽车学院,西安710064

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2023年第1期43-52,共10页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFE0108000)资助。

摘　　要：为研究汽车-两轮车碰撞事故中骑行者头部伤害的影响机理,探究头部损伤致因关系中存在的模式差异与异质性,基于中国交通事故深入研究(CIDAS)数据库中的2 806起两轮车事故,建立潜类别Logit模型。以骑行者头部伤害严重程度为因变量,将驾驶人、车辆、道路、环境和事故碰撞特征的相关因素作为自变量,取显著水平为0.05,建立多项式Logit模型,在此基础上根据拟合优度指标确定最优分组数并构建出潜类别Logit模型。研究结果表明:模型将事故样本划分为2个类别群体,2个群体在参数、变量分布特征和预测概率上存在显著差异,当事故样本具有“两轮车初始速度>30 km/h”、“骑行者碰撞后抛出距离>10 m”等特征时易被归类到类别1,且类别1对应于更严重的头部伤害;骑行者年龄>50岁、汽车类型为商用货车、两轮车类型为摩托车、事故发生在市区外、两轮车初始速度>30 km/h、头部碰撞玻璃和抛出距离>5 m都会增加头部损伤的严重程度;汽车驾驶人行驶意图为停车或变道时,存在造成严重两轮车事故的风险;佩戴头盔会减弱骑行者头部受到的伤害。This paper studies the impact factors of head injuries of two-wheeler riders via a novel latent class Logit model.The seriousness of the head injuries of the riders is used as the dependent variable,while the factors of driv-ers,vehicles,roads,environment,and characteristics of collisions are taken as independent variables.A multinomial Logit model is developed with a significance level of 0.05.On this basis,the optimal number of classes is deter-mined according to the goodness of fit.A latent class Logit model is developed based on 2806 two-wheeler collision data collected by the China In-depth Accident Study(CIDAS).According to the results,the model divides accident samples into two distinct categories.The two groups differ significantly in terms of parameter values,variable distri-bution characteristics,and the likelihood of predicting the outcome.Specifically,accidents with characteristics such as“two-wheelers initial speed is greater than 30 km/h”and“throwing distance is greater than 10 meters”are more likely to be classified as Class 1,which refers to the riders with more severe head injuries.In addition,severer head injuries are likely to occur under the following scenarios:including when a rider is over fifty,the colliding vehicle is a commercial truck,the two-wheeler is a motorcycle,the accident occurs outside a city,the two-wheeler is traveling above 30 km/h,the head collides with the glass,and the distance to the collision site after the collision is greater than 5 meters.Moreover,the risk of serious two-wheeler collisions is higher when a car driver intends to park or change lanes.Helmets are shown to reduce head injuries among riders.

关 键 词：交通安全 汽车-两轮车碰撞事故 骑行者 头部伤害 潜类别Logit模型 异质性 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]