信贷约束下的农业保险需求高估问题:理论解释与经验证据  

The Overestimated Demand for Agricultural Insurance under Credit Constraints:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence

作　　者：易福金 燕菲儿 王金霞 Yi Fujin;Yan Feier;Wang Jinxia(China Academy for Rural Development,Zhejiang University;School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University;School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences,Peking University;China Center for Agricultural Policy,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学中国农村发展研究院 [2]浙江大学公共管理学院 [3]南京农业大学经济管理学院 [4]北京大学现代农学院 [5]北京大学中国农业政策研究中心

出　　处：《管理世界》2023年第5期78-92,共15页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点国际合作项目“农业综合天气指数保险研究与实施”(72261147758);重大国际合作项目“提高区域食物—能源—水系统的可持续性:基于潜在的气候和发展情景下美国东南区域和中国华北平原的跨区域综合集成对比研究”(41861124006);中国资源环境与发展研究院的资助。

摘　　要：农业保险有效需求是中国农业保险可持续发展的基石。面对农村金融市场发育滞后的现状,信贷约束在一定程度上限制了农户对农业保险的支付能力,削弱了农业保险的实际需求,进而降低了每年财政资金补贴保费的使用效率。本文以旱灾为例,构建农户跨期经营决策模型,利用北京大学中国农业政策研究中心在河南、河北两个农业大省9个县开展的为期15年跟踪调查数据,通过显示性偏好方法探讨了农村广泛存在的信贷约束对农业保险需求的影响。结果表明:(1)忽视信贷约束使得农业保险的真实需求被严重高估;(2)在不完善的农村信贷市场中,政府的保费补贴政策对农业保险购买意愿拉动作用有限,尤其难以达到无信贷约束下的需求水平,导致财政补贴农业的效率降低。换句话说,进一步完善农村信贷市场以激发农业保险需求,有助于提升财政支持农业保险市场发展的效率。The effective demand of agricultural insurance is the basis for sustainable development of China's agricultural insurance.Under the background of the lagging development of rural financial market,credit constraints weaken the real demand for agricultural insurance by limiting farmers'ability to pay for agricultural insurance,which will reduce the efficiency of tremendous financial funds to subsidize insurance premiums.Taking drought as an example,this study first constructs a farmers'intertemporal decision-making model to confirm the above hypothesis.Using a 15-year follow-up survey conducted by Peking University in 9 counties in Henan and Hebei,we revealed the true demand of agricultural insurance with credit constraints.Specifically,the results show that ignoring the credit constraints makes the real demand for agricultural insurance overestimated.Second,in an imperfect rural credit market,the premium subsidy policy has limited effects on agricultural insurance demand.Especially,it is difficult to reach the demand level without credit constraints,resulting in the reduction of the efficiency of financial subsidy to agriculture.In other words,developing the rural credit market and social security could stimulate the demand of agricultural insurance,and further improve the efficiency of financial support for agricultural insurance program.

关 键 词：农业保险 需求 保费补贴 信贷约束 

分 类 号：F842.66[经济管理—保险] F832.43F323