从“二孩”到“三孩”:“高龄少子化”社会的政策应对与社会回应  

From“Two-child”to“Three-child”:Policy Response and Social Response to“Fewer Children at an Older Age”Society

作　　者：鲁烨[1,2] LU Ye(School of Educational Science,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou,Jiangsu 225009;Institute of Marxism,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]扬州大学教育科学学院,江苏扬州225009 [2]中国社会科学院马克思主义研究院,北京100732

出　　处：《江西师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第2期41-49,共9页Journal of Jiangxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金项目“乡村振兴背景下江苏农村本土人才回流与发展路径研究”(编号:21SHD002);江苏省“紫金文化人才培养工程”资助(苏宣干[2020]96号)。

摘　　要：我国先后出台了“单独二孩”“全面二孩”和“全面三孩”的生育政策,以应对“高龄少子化”社会的趋势进程。渐进式放松的生育政策能否取得预期效果,取决于目标人群在婚嫁、生育、养育、教育方面的观念及行为反应。本文基于“七普”数据,从“流动人口”跨区域迁徙特征、适龄人群婚育意愿及决策比较等维度进行分析,阐释政策变迁与社会行为的互动效应,就完善与“三孩”生育配套的“政策篮子”提供政策建议。研究认为,要尊重适龄人群的“类差异性”,分类指导,精准施策;要“均衡化”城乡资源配置,科学引导适龄人群理性流动;要积极培育生育友好型文化,协同营造良好的婚育环境。Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),China has introduced the childbearing policy of“two children if one of the couples is an only child”,“all couples can have two children”and“one couple can have three children”,in order to cope with the trend of“fewer children at an advanced age”society.Whether the gradual relaxation of the birth policy can achieve the desired effect depends on the target population's ideas and behavioral responses in marriage,childbirth,parenting and education.Based on the“population data released by the seventh National Census”,this paper analyzes the cross-regional migration characteristics of the“floating population”,the marriage and childbearing intention of the appropriate age group and the comparison of decision making,explains the interactive effects of policy changes and social behaviors,and provides policy suggestions on the formulation of the“policy basket”supporting the“three-child”birth.According to the research,we should respect the“class difference”of the age-appropriate population,guide categorically and give accurate policies;we should“equalize”the allocation of urban and rural resources and scientifically guide the rational flow of the age-appropriate population;we should actively cultivate a childbearing friendly culture and cooperate to create a good environment for marriage and childbearing.

关 键 词：“七普”数据 生育政策 适龄婚育群体 生育意愿 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]