第三产业份额提高的产业结构变迁是否促进经济增长  

Does the Change of Industrial Structure With the Increase of Tertiary Industry Share Promote Economic Growth

作　　者：张爱英[1] 张明[2] ZHANG Aiying;ZHANG Ming(Shanxi Academy of Social Sciences,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030032;School of Economics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省社会科学院,山西太原030032 [2]山西财经大学经济学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《江西师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第2期128-137,共10页Journal of Jiangxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：改革开放带来的市场经济和工业化过程对中国经济增长的作用巨大。基于理论机理分析模型和实证门限回归模型来研究我国市场经济改革以来产业结构变迁对经济增长的作用,结论是:第二产业在工业化前期和中期是我国经济的主导产业,是拉动经济高质量增长的重要引擎;但伴随着工业化进程的推进,第二产业在促进经济增长的作用方面出现下降。工业化后期,第三产业劳动力占比不断扩大成为国民经济的主导产业,但第三产业中的劳动力占比扩大对经济增长具有不利影响。中国在工业化时期,以第二产业和第三产业的劳动力份额增加为特征的产业结构变迁促进了经济增长;进入工业化后期,以第三产业份额扩大为特征的产业结构变迁虽然出现一些Baumol病问题,但整体上促进了经济增长。Market economy and industrialization process brought about by reform and opening up play a huge role in China’s economic growth.Based on the theoretical mechanism analysis model and the positive threshold regression model,this paper studies the effect of industrial structure change on economic growth since the market economy reform in China.The conclusion is as followes:the secondary industry was the leading industry of the Chinese economy in the early and middle period of the industrialization,and was an important engine of the high-quality economic growth.However,with the advancement of the industrialization process,the role of the secondary industry in promoting the economic growth declined.In the later period of industrialization,the proportion of labor force in the tertiary industry had continuously expanded and become the leading industry in the national economy,but the expansion of the proportion of labor force in the tertiary industry had an adverse effect on economic growth.In China’s industrialization period,the industrial structure changes characterized by the increase of labor share in the secondary industry and the tertiary industry promoted the economic growth.In the later period of industrialization,the change of industrial structure characterized by the expansion of the share of tertiary industry,although there were some Baumol disease problems,promoted the economic growth on the whole.

关 键 词：第三产业 产业结构变迁 经济增长 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]